
| Here I'll post my responses to reader questions, plus any additions or corrections to the book. Feel free to contact me by emailing the address shown in the above image. [Sorry, you must type it in rather than click on it. The email address in an image rather than text is how we beat the 'bot' programs that rove web pages harvesting email addresses for spamming.] Please include your first name/last initial, and city (or country), should we post your question here. Your email address is safe with us and will never be shared with anyone. I honor requests to not post your question publicly if you would prefer just an email response. |
| --Richard Moheban |
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Q: Joanne P. of Tempe, AZ writes: "After reading your book, I am regretting having sold my stocks last year. I'd like to buy back in but I'm uncomfortable doing that since
the market is already up a lot in the last 3 months. What should I do? I won't say what you should do, but I'll tell you what I would do. Luckily, there are ways to position in a stock for lower than the current price. One way is selling "put" options, which, unlike other option trading, is no riskier than simply buying stock. What you are doing is selling someone the option (for a certain time period) to sell you the stock at a certain price that you've determined. They pay you up front for that privilege. If they exercise the option, you get the stock at the (lower) price that you determined when you sold the option. If they never exercise the privilege (because the stock price rises), you profit from keeping their payment for the option. For example, suppose you want to buy the broad S&P 500 stock index. You can buy it via the corresponding exchange-traded fund with ticker "SPY". SPY currently is trading at $97.62/share -- well above its lows below $70 four months ago. If you want to buy SPY for the long term, you might consider selling a long term put (that has 1 to 2 years left before expiration). In your brokerage account, (or the yahoo quote page), click on the 'Options' link. I see that a put on SPY with a strike price of $85.00 and expiration of December 2010 has a bid of $7.60 at the time I write this. That means somebody is willing to pay you $7.60 for the right to sell you SPY for $85.00, expiring December 2010. This is a great deal since you are even considering buying at the current market of $97.62! The worst that could happen if SPY suffers a huge drop is that you effectively bought it for only $77.40 ($85 net of the $7.60 you received.) This 21% discount to the current price is a worst case scenario I could certainly live with! Puts are bought and sold in contract units that consist of 100 shares of stock each. So if you sell 1 put at $7.60 with a strike of $85.00, you need to have enough cash kept on hand to buy 100 shares, or $8500.00. You'll receive $760.00 cash in selling the 1 put contract, less a small commission. To trade options, you must sign an agreement with your brokerage and read a pamphlet (per SEC rules) about the risks of options. However, if you limit yourself to only selling put options, you are doing nothing riskier than buying stock, provided you keep the cash ready. You should always keep enough liquid assets to pay for the underlying stock, as the puts can be exercised at any time without warning. (I don't recommend using margin to collateralize selling puts unless you can get the cash quickly.) It's wise to keep plenty of collateral (if not the cash, then stock, mutual funds, CD's, etc.) in that brokerage account as a buffer because if your holdings in the account lose enough value the broker can sell them to raise cash as collateral for your put obligation. However, you can usually transfer mutual funds and such into a single brokerage account pretty painlessly to beef up its collateral (marginable) value. Also, if you change your mind before the put is exercised, you can simply "buy to close" the same number of contracts of the put and thus be relieved of the 'open' obligation to buy the stock. Keep in mind that selling a put option does not guarantee you will be sold the stock. The put will only be exercised by the buyer if the market price drops below the strike price. If the stock is a "must own" position for you, perhaps combine selling puts with buying some shares outright. You can also 'play around' with short term trades of selling and 'buying to close' puts, knowing that the worst case scenario is that you are forced to buy a stock you like at a price of your choosing. Selling puts is a favorite strategy of mine and I've never failed to profit from a put trade yet~ (...eventually) |
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Q: Dan L. from Ontario, Canada asks: "I hope you are wrong about precious metals and that they are going much higher because I have big money in gold and silver miners and physical gold. Just in case you are right, is there a form of precious metal investment that you feel
has better downside protection than these?" I would not have more than 10-15% of your assets in precious metal bullion and gold/silver mining stocks. Preferably less. If you feel you must own more, consider that silver is probably cheaper than gold, though there is nothing written in the stars that says silver cannot decline to half of its current spot of $14/oz. (In fact silver was at $7 just a few years ago and a couple years before that it traded in the $4-$5 range for several years.) Be aware that mining stocks would likely fall further than any price declines in the metals due to their leverage. The stocks are definitely more inherently risky than a stash of physical gold. If you still want to invest a lot in precious metals, a better choice than bullion and miners is "junk silver" coins. Silver U.S. dimes, quarters and halves from the 1940's and 1950's, for example, are very liquid and divisible, and still sell by the bag for just a small premium over melt value. Eventually, the premium will have to widen considerably because as the dates "age", nostalgia and collectibility will increase. It has always been the case that some decades after older coins are pulled from circulation, they become very appealling to collectors and their values take off. For example, common date U.S. Indian Head cents, minted until 1909, circulated for a penny until the 1950's. Though they are still very plentiful in collections today, even in larger bulk lots common date Indian Heads command nearly $.75 each. The melt value of the copper is only a couple of cents, so the 75-fold gain since the 1950's is almost entirely from strong collector interest. If you have a lot of money to invest, then warehousing all that junk silver might not be appealing. If you are so inclined, you might consider collecting higher value individual coins that are graded, certified and encapsulated by a reputable third party. However, you need a genuine interest in coins to be motivated to acquire the necessary education to avoid the pitfalls of buying coins. The bottom line is that if gold stagnates or declines (sooner or later I'm confident it will), certain numismatics will likely hold up well or even keep rising. On the other hand, if precious metals rise because of bad economic news, many numismatics will probably also rise sympathetically, and junk silver certainly will since it trades based on its silver melt value. So yes, older collectible (not purely "bullion") coins can offer much more downside protection should spot prices fall. |
| Q:
I received a good question from Rory F. of Milpitas, CA soon after publication, Why the subtitle "A Guide for Investors" when the book is more economics than investing advice?
Yes, the book is purely practical economics that is relevant to debunk the Schiff/Austrian arguments, and deliberately lacks specific investment advice or predictions. The subtitle was actually an afterthought (after manuscript completion) that was added to indicate the intended audience being investors (including layperson investors), more so than the usual audience for economics books. This was not because the material would be repetitive to those well-read in economics -- quite the contrary -- but because it is written to be more engaging and entertaining for the average semi-active investor than most economics books. This trait of readability follows naturally from my "view from the ground" method of examining the (realistic!) viewpoints of various actors within the economy, and avoidance of the usual folly of self-indulgent macroeconomic causations employed by Schiff, Austrians and Keynesians alike. Of course investors grounded in true economic causality have a great advantage in being able to identify some of the voodoo that passes for economics that is so often volleyed around -- even by economists -- and thusly better recognize the clear opportunities and pitfalls in the broad scheme of the decades-long business/investing cycle, which always and so faithfully returns. The book's silence of advice is actually a blessing. A plethora of predictions that actually have a thirty, fifty or even seventy percent chance of coming true are not helpful. They are noise that is best left unsaid. I avoid predictions or advice unless I have powerful reason to believe the outcome has at least a 90% chance of occurring. Such things often need a 5 to 10 year horizon (or possibly more). (Schiff is trying to predict in this way, but time will prove him to be far from the mark -- especially on inflation.) As Warren Buffett has said, "there are no called strikes in investing." You can wait for the perfect meatball pitch that is screaming to be slugged, and thus avoid strikeouts. To make up for the lack of specific investment advice in the book, I'll post here for readers my 90%+ recommendations at the above link on "clear opportunities and pitfalls." The subtitle was also to suggest to libraries and bookstores to shelve the book more appropriately in the 'personal finance' section than in 'economics'. Sometimes mundane marketing can drive decisions. |
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Q: David C. of Cambridge, MA asks: I have positioned my assets based on Peter Schiffs advice in Crash Proof. I am comfortable with owning foreign stocks and gold but I feel a little weird about having my CDs in foreign currencies. What is your opinion?
If you own significant assets in foreign bank accounts, it would be wise to check on the laws of the countries the banks are subject to (where they are incorporated and/or operating) and what deposit insurance applies for U.S. investors. Personally, I would avoid the uncertainty and hassle of worrying about foreign banking laws. If something ever does happen, I dont want to be dealing with someone overseas. Keep in mind that the foreign bank holds your money, even if the CD is held in a U.S. brokerage account. If you dont already have the accounts at foreign banks, I would stick with U.S. banks (or foreign banks with a large U.S. retail presence, such as Dutch giant ING)It may take some searching to find one that offers CDs in the foreign currencies you want. Find out what government depositor insurance applies. Mass bank failures sweeping the country (or globe) is now far less likely since banks have been shoring up their balance sheets for the last year, and the government has given the clear signal that it will do whatever it takes keep the system from collapsing. A much bigger consideration is that if you live in the U.S., you will need to pay all your bills in U.S. dollars. There is a fair amount of agreement that the dollar ought to weaken, but you never know. Anything can happen, and the dollar could actually strengthen over time. Then all your foreign assets and income will decline in the conversion, proportionally to any dollar rise. I have no argument against Schiffs getting out the dollar -- somewhat. Many foreign stocks do look cheaper and the BRIC countries' economic growth story is for real. However getting your assets out of the dollar completely is betting the whole farm that the dollar will not strengthen. If the dollar does go higher you could lose really big. |
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Q: Kelsey J. of Dearborn, MI wonders: If you are not a Gold Bug, how come you know so much about coins?
I am not a gold bug but an investor, though I suppose I once was a gold bug of sorts! In the late
nineties and into the millenium, I was looking for investments outside of the overpriced stock market. One day I discovered that silver Mercury dimes
(minted from 1916-1945) could be bought for their melt value of about 35 cents each. I distinctly remember sitting having lunch and pondering how it
was possible that my soft drink could be valued at more than five of these attractive, antique silver coins. It was a no-brainer to me that silver and old
coins were far too cheap. For the next several years I then learned about and invested in many types of coins that I thought were undervalued.
I began selling some of them after gold and silver had doubled, and by the time they had tripled and more in value I had sold them all. I learned a great
deal about coins in those years. Now I think simple fear about the economy and our financial system has driven precious metals and many coin prices
to a high level. I only invest in things that are undervalued. I believe strongly in diving in and learning all you can about your investments, and so it is that I know
about coins.
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| Q: Jen W. of Santa Fe, NM writes: "You are down on gold as an inflation hedge and hot on collectibles. I really don't care to collect stuff though. What else
is there? I would not say that I'm "hot on collectibles" in general. However, I am in favor of investing in some collectibles (or other tangible assets) that are reasonably priced, well understood by the investor, and have a limited supply (i.e., new production is limited). Collectibles (or other hard assets of some kind) can provide a key diversification benefit and reduce volatility in a portfolio. They can help you sleep at night. Shrewdly chosen, they can make phenomenal gains. Be careful to avoid 'hot markets' and overpaying for these fixed (non-growing, non-income producing) assets. [Those buying gold and silver at $1050.00 and $17.50 today stand an excellent chance of discovering one day in hindsight that they overpaid. When that happens, no growth or income can ease their pain.]
The Ultimate Inflation HedgeAs for an asset you can physically hold as a pure hedge against runaway inflation, there is one completely overlooked item that has such compelling advantages, and so few disadvantages, as to trump all of the others, in my opinion. That asset, believe it or not, is the lowly 'Forever' first class postage stamp. Its advantages include:
If you really feel you need to dump your dollars for an inflation hedge that you can physically hold, 'Forever' stamps are an outstanding choice. You can rest assured that if a gallon of milk (or gasoline) costs $25, and mailing a letter costs $5, your stash hasn't lost any purchasing power. Don't neglect to keep the stamps in multiple locations, though, in fireproof safes. Think ahead several years, when prices have failed to skyrocket as the gold bugs predict. Would you like to discover you own a pile of gold or silver that you may have bought way too high, or rather a mess of stamps that have increased in nominal value just as sure as the Post Office hikes its rates? Full disclosure: I do not have a large stash of stamps -- the ultimate inflation hedge idea just struck me one day in line at the post office! |
Thanks goes to a careful reader (Robert Sussman of Delray Beach, FL) for pointing out an error in the poker game example on page 66. At the time that the poker chip supply was doubled, the example had the new chips distributed equally to the players. This was incorrect. Each player's current number of chips rather than initial number of chips should have been doubled. (The sum total of chips still increases from 1000 to 2000.) The error is one of mechanics -- the soundness of the principle behind the illustration is not affected. The error will be corrected next printing.
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