My Notes on the Peter Schiff Radio Program
"Wall Street Unspun"
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This page gives my condensed notes from listening to Wall Street Unspun, the weekly radio show of Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff is Ron Paul's economic advisor. I am in no way affiliated but simply jot down these notes as a listener to the shows. These nutshell briefs of each program will save listeners much time in judging whether a given program might be worth an hour's listen, or to locate a certain topic in the audio archive for targeted listening.
It's easy to perform keyword searches on this page. Simply hold [Ctrl] and type [F] and a search box will appear. As of Aug. 5th, I am starting a new feature where I mark any predictions with "prediction:" so that by search-boxing the word "prediction" you'll be able to go back and jump to all of Peter's past predictions (on shows transcribed after Aug. 5th, so excluding June 10 thru July 29, 2009). Now and in the future you'll be able to quickly see here how Peter's predictions have panned out. My aim here is to summarize Schiff's points from the radio show in great brevity and without bias. I will emphasize any of Schiff's comments which are especially interesting due to not being simply a reiteration of his well-known views already found abundantly in his books, articles and media appearances. I'll make some effort to merely report, with a minimum of editorial, as my book already debunks at length Schiff's fundamentally flawed macroeconomic predictions. When I do decide to editorialize here, I will have my editorial stand out separately in
this color. These notes are only lightly edited, so if anything is unclear, email me and I'll be happy to fix it. (Transcribing is very time consuming, and I can't afford the extra time for heavy editing to ensure perfect clarity.) Also, "quotation marks" indicate a verbatim quote of the host of that program while my notes that are not in quotes are paraphrased and condensed.
[Added Nov 5, 2009] Finally, in the interest of sparing the reader from repetition as much as possible, I now will be omitting topics repeatedly covered
elsewhere on this page -- whether part of Schiff's monologue or caller questions. Therefore, the number of callers listed here is likely to be fewer than actually called in for that show.
[Added Jan 27, 2010] From now on I'll be doing 'minimal' transcriptions to minimize repetitive material. I'll only take note of Schiff's most important predictions or positions that
are not already covered on this page.
[Added Nov 17, 2011] I had discontinued transcribing shows in early 2010 as traffic for this page had remained light, so it was not worth the hours to listen and write up each show. Schiff also discontinued the free "Wall Street Unspun" and replaced it with "The Peter Schiff Show" as a paid subscription show. I'll keep this archive posted. Though the shows are not current it's still much easier to search text for topics here than to do hours of random listening on youtube or in the audio archive. And past shows are great for seeing how specific predictions have panned out.
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| Feb 24, 2010 | Host: Peter Schiff .....President Obama on TV today said that we need to "stimulate demand".....Schiff says: "no, we don't.....demand doesn't have to be stimulated because everybody wants everything".....this is a serious misunderstanding of the concept of "demand" in economics..... "demand" refers to the quantity of a product at some given price that buyers are actually willing to presently buy, with money in hand.....what Schiff is talking about is desire, not demand.....for example, everybody would desire a BMW if they were free, but there is a curve that depicts how the actual "demand" for BMW's varies (falls) as the price rises.....Schiff goes on: "what we have to stimulate is supply....production"....."the last thing we want is policies to stimulate demand because the policies that stimulate demand are the ones that interfere with the ability to stimulate supply.....to produce".....stimulating demand interferes with higher production? -- what?? nonsense.....supply levels and demand levels do not run opposite, but rather are intertwined..... actually, supply tends to follow demand, meaning that producers manufacturer the quantity sufficient to replace what was sold; producing much more than that only leads to unsold inventory accumulation, which is costly to warehouse and cannot help the producer (or the economy) when it sits unsold/unused.....most production today is so highly automated and rapid to set up another batch, that many producers tend to wait for orders for them to fill rather than continuously crank out all they can to "create national wealth", as the Austrian view would have it.....thus, the revving up of a prosperous economy, and wealth creation overall, do, in fact, rely on demand from some end user (consumer)..... without any sales at all, production would grind to a halt..... .....Schiff's mistaking of 'desire' for 'demand' is a gross error that he has repeatedly made....it was an early tip-off to me that Schiff-onomics was not sound..... .....Obama and his advisors are dead wrong and clueless about basic economics.....Obama in his speech contradicted himself by saying we need to stimulate demand while stimulating credit simultaneously.....credit comes from savings which is the opposite of demand [spending]; thus, you can't stimulate demand and credit at the same time.... .....sure you can.....it's true that for any one person holding a given dollar, the immediate choice is to either save it or spend it, not both.....however, we are talking about some individuals spending while banks or other individuals extend them credit, so of course you can stimulate both spending and credit at once....the savings of the lender are transferred presently to the borrower for current spending, in exchange for future repayment of the loan.....thus the same actual dollar that is the savings of the lender one moment, is the spending of the borrower the next moment..... .....credit creation doesn't necessarily even rely on any new savings as a bank can extend new credit up to a maximum multiple of the amount it holds in deposits.....this amount changes daily, however a reduction of one bank's deposits is only a transfer, and thus a deposit gain to another bank.....so it is a zero sum event to the whole system; the money is merely in one person's bank account or another's.....irregardless of whether the money was just spent or has been sitting idly as savings, it is equally available for the banks to lend upon.....though the choice to either save your money in your checking account or spend it by writing a check makes quite a difference to you, that choice makes no difference to the whole of the banking system; total deposits remain the same so total lending capacity of the system is unchanged by either spending or saving....this is how bank lending actually works.....what is important in stimulating credit is that we avoid the recent error of lending to those who cannot or will not pay it back..... .....Americans' borrowing and spending contracted so sharply in 2008 that businesses were in trouble and forced to lay off, with the resultant unemployment exascerbating the recession.....there's nothing wrong with encouraging reasonable levels of spending on credit (for credit-worthy borrowers), and of course that would help businesses and job creation..... (Schiff on the Congressional testimony of Ben Bernanke re: mortgages not being written down to current home values)....."obviously if you loan somebody $500k to buy a house and the house is now only worth $300k, to pretend that the loan is worth $500k is absurd".....not at all....many types of loans are not secured with any collateral at all.....naturally those loans are not written down unless they go into default (unless such bonds are liquid enough for the relatively new "mark to market" rules to apply)....with a mortgage, having the security of a home as collateral adds to the loan's safety compared to a loan with no collateral, so if a mortgage is performing and expected to continue to perform there is no reason to write it down.....many underwater home owners will continue to never miss a payment regardless of being underwater.....this actually describes the majority of home owners financed by Clayton Homes, which is a modular home builder for modest-income home owners.....Warren Buffett in this letter to Berkshire shareholders says that practically all of these lower income folks just keep paying, even if the loan is more than the home is worth (start bottom page 10)....Buffett continues, "Commentary about the current housing crisis often ignores the crucial fact that most foreclosures do not occur because a house is worth less than its mortgage (so-called “upside-down” loans). Rather, foreclosures take place because borrowers can’t pay the monthly payment that they agreed to pay." .....(Schiff on sovereign debt ills in Europe and Greece:) "the real problem is right here in the United States.....we have got the more serious problem and we're more likely to end up with runaway inflation".....prediction: Greek bondholders will not be made whole....."I actually think that people holding Greek gov't. debt will make out a lot better than people holding U.S. gov't. debt, because I don't expect the Greeks to pay nothing".....he expects a 20-25% haircut for Greek bondholders, but expects U.S. inflation (dollar collapse) to mean that U.S. Treasury holders will "be lucky to walk away with 20 cents or 10 cents on the dollar in terms of real money"..... |
| Feb 17, 2010 | Host: Andrew Schiff, joined by Peter Schiff briefly near the end .....[I listened but no notes this week].... |
| Feb 10, 2010 | Host: Peter Schiff .....[I listened but no notes this week].... |
| Feb 3, 2010 | Host: Peter Schiff .....Schiff prediction: (37:00) "Obama claiming that these big budget deficits will come down over time"...."they're not gonna come down, they're just gonna get worse, because the economy is going to getting worse, which means the tax revenues will shrink, they're not gonna grow, and gov't. expenditures are going to grow, not shrink"....."so the budget deficit is going to get worse and worse the farther into the future you go, until this whole thing comes collapsing down"..... |
| Jan 27, 2010 | .....[I listened but no notes this week].... |
| Jan 20, 2010 | Host: Neeraj Chaudhary; Peter Schiff joins at 49:30 of the hour .....[notes start with Peter's arrival].....Peter just left from speaking to a Republican town meeting in Meridan, CT.....spoke last night to the Westport Republican town council.....tomorrow night will be speaking in Ridgefield, CT....."the good news is I think I am winning over a lot of converts"....."I really do think I can win this race".....fundraising is gathering steam; over $300,000 in new contributions this month from just a couple of emails and the campaign website.....Scott Brown upset the heavily favored Attorney General in the Massachusetts Senate race.....Schiff also running against a favored Atty. General and thinks he will too, for Connecticut.....Scott Brown's victory is energizing the base and expanding it..... .....catalyst for today's dollar rally was China's tightening of monetary policy...."well, that's long term negative for the dollar".....higher interest rates in China makes the RMB more attractive, which will draw capital from dollars into China....."ultimately, if the Chinese aren't printing as much money, they don't have to buy as many Treasuries".....the Fed will then buy more Treasuries with printing press money and inflate.....so tighter money in China means a weaker dollar long term..... the Fed's tightening to match China's would maintain the relative currencies' value, but "we're not going to do that.....we're gonna keep interest rates at zero"..... .....on the campaign: there hasn't been much in the way of campaign ads so far, but that is changing -- lots of advertising is coming soon....interviewing a dedicated campaign manager tomorrow instead of staff doing the job; 3 new consultants on board; "just hired a media person"; will be coming out with "major advertising in direct mail, television, radio".....cannot reveal complete campaign strategy now as he does not want his opponents to be able to adjust their fire, but "people need to trust me that I have a game plan to win this election.....both the Republican nomination and the general election".....please donate as much as you can as early as you can so he has the resources available.....please consider making some phone calls every day to Connecticut voters..... donate your money and your time on the phone bank at www.schiffforsenate.com..... |
| Jan 13, 2010 | Host: Peter Schiff .....call-in phone number: (888) 678-9597; show broadcast on shortwave radio at 5.07 mHz -- repeated Saturdays, 8:30 Eastern time, 9.32 mHz..... .....hearings going on now in Congress on determining the cause of the financial crisis are "just a farce"....."[they] have no interest in figuring out the cause of the financial crisis.....because the cause is them".....they want an excuse for more government and regulation..... .....the Fed's profit for 2009 was a record high $45 bn, which it has to pay the majority of it by law to the US Treasury.....the record profit is because the Fed has not written down its $1 trillion of toxic assets to market.....Schiff thinks at best the toxic assets might be worth 50 cents on the dollar, but maybe only 20 or 30 cents.....actually, though the Fed's accounting is anything but transparent, still it is clear that the $45 billion record profit actually reflects a much lower than usual return on assets for the Fed, so the Fed must have already written down something in the tens or hundreds of billions in bad assets.....the reason the profit is at a record absolute high is only because the Fed expanded its balance sheet by an unprecedented 2.5 fold in the last year or so..... |
| Jan 6, 2010 | Host: Andrew Schiff; Peter Schiff joined at 09:20 Andrew:.....big news is Senator Chris Dodd's announcement to not seek reelection after his current 4th term.....so Peter doing lots of interviews for print and wire now.....tonight he is doing a Larry Kudlow & Co. show taping with all the candidates for Dodd's seat; he will join later..... .....Bernanke speech at Atlanta conference "probably the most controversial speech of his tenure" in saying the Fed's low interest rates didn't cause the housing bubble; rather it was the new, risky mortgage products.....Andrew vehemently disagreed and repeated their oft-said analogy that low interest rates were like "spiking the punch bowl" with booze, thus causing the crazy speculative behavior in housing.....the gist being as Peter has said -- that the Fed's easy monetary policies were the chief cause of the housing bubble.....Bernanke invoked the "Taylor rule" in justifying the low interest rates.....on Kudlow's show today, though, Taylor actually was interviewed and said that Bernanke misapplied his rule..... .....Fed's last OMC minutes came out today.....talk was about no evidence of a shift to an 'exit strategy' from the massive easing..... Peter joins: ....the Fed "thinks inflation is the salvation"....they want to paper away the problems by printing money.....he just recorded a video blog criticizing Bernanke's speech trying to exonerate the Fed in the housing bubble....Schiff says the ARM's and interest-only mortgages would not have existed if interest rates weren't so low.....Bernanke can't be so incompetent to not see that, so "he's just a liar"..... .....overseas stocks still "extremely strong".....Euro Pacific China Stock Fund (EPHCX) is up 28% in the 4 months since its debut.....dollar rally seems over now....the strength in agriculture, mining, commodity, energy stocks "shows you that inflation is here".....well, no, inflation is not here.....Schiff has been claiming for some time that the surging stock market of the last 9 months is only a reflection of inflation.....it's a baseless claim since thus far any unusual inflation from the stimulus spending or Fed purchases has simply not appeared.....one could argue that the markets are surging because of an expectation of big inflation, but even that would be irresponsible because there is no way to see inside the heads of all the millions of stock buyers and determine that their reason for buying is an expectation of high inflation.....a variety of reasons could explain the buying..... .....oil closed at $83.30....prediction: thinks it can go to $90 quickly and will go well over $100 in 2010.....food prices will rise.....all this is inflation as a result of the stimulus spending.....it's not a recovery..... .....the mortgage modification programs are being generally seen as a failure now.....now, talk is of modifying the principal rather than just monthly payments as was done so far.....Schiff said he supported principal relief all along because the only way to give homeowners incentive to keep making payments is to allow them to have equity.....[what about his philosophy of free markets and no government intervention?].....the problem with this is that owners can then sell quickly and walk away with the equity in cash.....this will bring more inventory to the market and depress prices.....the homeowner also might draw out the equity without selling and lose the equity cushion, ending up in the same predicament....."there is no government solution to the housing problem"..... .....talked a while about new regulations proposed on income tax preparers.....bad idea -- indicated tax preparation is far too complicated and that he supports major simplification of tax code such as a flat tax..... .....on the Senate race, Richard Blumenthal is "obviously much more popular in the State of Connecticut than Chris Dodd.....but I think once we peel back the curtain we'll reveal a politician very similar to Dodd in his ideology"....."he's a professional politician, an Attorney General for 20 years.....he's never run a business or had any employees"....."he's made a name for himself basically going after businesses, you know, trying to sue businesses"....."that's not what we need....business is already in trouble.....we need someone to champion businesses and entrepreneurship and free market capitalism".....we need tort reform and not another lawyer in the Senate to protect the lawyers' interests [of plentiful litigation]..... |
| Dec 30, 2009 | Host: Hemant Kathuria .....[no notes this week]..... |
| Dec 23, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....next week there will be a guest host since he has to be in Westerfield, CT at a meeting with a "Republican town council" for his campaign.....he'll try to call in if possible.....youtube channel "schiff report" now has 16,000 members.....also, signup for his new channel "schiff for senate" to see his political videos.....one week left to donate to the campaign in Q4 for numbers purposes.....HQ grand opening party (Milford, CT) last week was well attended, around 200-300 supporters.....bringing in a consulting firm for the campaign.....direct mail, internet, radio, TV strategies now being formulated.....only 2 opponents in this Republican nomination race..... .....health care legislation becoming close to a reality.....it's "the last thing that the economy needs....huge new federal bureacracy and entitlement package".....original Medicare cost estimates from the 1960's underestimated by over tenfold.....tax increases in the bill kick in long before a lot of the benefits.....prediction: the extra taxes will be spent on other programs rather than be there to cover the costs later on.....this decade we are finishing has "paved the way to hell".....the coming decade will be "a lot worse" [than this decade has been]"....."the monetary policies of Ben Bernanke and fiscal policies of this Congress and President are worse than anything that we did during this [last] decade".....prediction: no one can say whether the coming collapse will be in 2010, 2011, or 2012, but this "horrific" collapse "is coming soon" and will take the form of a currency crisis and be horrific, with consumer price levels and interest rates going "into the stratosphere".....2.2% GDP growth last quarter is phony growth from stimulus spending but "the gov't. can't stimulate forever because.....the rest of the world won't loan us the money to do it"....."it's impossible" for the phony economy [from before the crisis] to come back....."it can't come back.....all of that consumption was a function of real estate wealth that will never return".....2.2% growth is very small considering all the stimulus.....after the 1981 recession which was not as severe, and did not have the stimulus spending, growth surged 6-8%.....statistic doesn't measure economic growth when you measure spending and ignore all the debt we're accumulating to create that spending..... .....market news: gold continuing to correct a bit.....gold stocks bouncing a bit might be signalling the correction is over.....stocks are strong globally.....bond market has been clobbered with interest rates sitting at a 4 month high.....thinks inflation worries are causing creditors to demand higher rates.....GDP nominal rise is only "because of inflation".....at some point as rates rise, it will bear down on the markets and the economy when people really appreciate how much higher rates will hurt the economy.....cost of borrowing will be going up for everybody: home buyers, commercial real estate, and US Treasury, etc......focus on sovereign debt defaults so far has been abroad, but eventually eyes will be on the U.S. government, which "there's no way that we can pay [the debt] off, so default is inevitable".....the only question is whether the default is "honest" by not paying or restructuring, or whether it will be "dishonest" default through creating inflation and paying creditors will "worthless money", which unfortunately wipes out not only its own debts, but all creditors of dollars.....Caller 1: What's your position on unions or organized labor? Answer: Schiff's view on unions: (19:00) workers should have a right to organize, but employers should have a right to be able to deny requests and fire people.....government tilts the playing field and allows unions to extort demands on employers.....it's no coincidence that many of our unionized industries have gotten uncompetitive and gone under.....against gov't. labor welfare but also against corporate welfare -- keep the playing field level rather than give one side an advantage -- free markets decide..... Q: Would you like to abolish the Fed (Federal Reserve)? Answer: definitely wants to audit the Fed, but to end the Fed is questionable because its successor might be as bad or worse....."if I could decide what replaced it, then I would end the Fed".....we don't want the Treasury, and thereby Congress, directly printing money as it pleases.....reforming the Fed to reduce its powers is a "safer" course.....Caller 2: (question on the Health Care legislation) Answer: this national health insurance cannot work.....coverage for pre-existing conditions is not feasible.....it's like purchasing fire insurance for your house when your house is already on fire.....insurance companies will fail.....premiums can only be affordable when high risk groups can be separated out.....people won't even buy the insurance because they know they can wait until they're sick and then buy the insurance.....the fines or punishment will have to be a lot harsher than how the bill stands now.....we'll end up with a single payer system completely financed by the government....."if we think health care is expensive now, just wait until we see how expensive it is when it's free from the government".....Q: Why do think silver will double in price? Answer: they are printing a lot of money and not mining a lot of silver; simply supply and demand....more people across the globe will want to own real money; gold and silver.....we're within days of launching Euro Pacific Precious Metals (phone: 888-377-3722) where you can buy gold and silver delivered to you from New York rather than sent from the Perth Mint.....prediction: "there's no doubt in my mind that [precious metal] is just going to go higher and higher and higher".....Caller 3: Is China's pegging the yuan to the USD analagous to during the Great Depression when the Fed weakened the dollar with low rates to prop up the British pound? Answer: yes, I've made that comparison before.....asset bubbles are forming in Chinese real estate and stocks.....when they ultimately burst, whether a Depression follows will be based on China's policies.....I am betting that they won't make the same mistakes as Hoover and Roosevelt.....the underlying Chinese economy will actually improve when the asset bubbles burst and the yuan is depegged.....Caller 4: (question on hyperinflation) Answer: "all the ingredients that have led to hyperinflation in other countries are present in the United States, and we're going to end up at that destination if we don't do a 180 degree change in policy".....the longer we wait, the more difficult will be the maneuver.....Caller 5: When is a good time to buy a house? Answer: I recently bought the house I was renting.....it wasn't the shrewdest financial move but rather a "lifestyle decision".....[home prices should fall further].....still, now rates are very low and locking in a rate now for 30 years could be very good....."who knows, by the time you make your last mortgage payment, the stamp on the envelope might be for a larger amount than the check you put inside it" [with all the coming inflation]..... |
| Dec 16, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....Peter doing the show tonight from his new campaign headquarters.....tomorrow night is the grand opening party at the HQ 6:00-9:00, open house, check campaign website for details..... .....he has been speaking at many town hall meetings lately; videos to be posted on youtube....railed on Ben Bernanke being chosen Time magazine's "Person of the Year".....Time also considered Tim Geithner and President Obama.....credited Bernanke for keeping the US out of a modern day Great Depression....Schiff says he is actually creating what will be something worse, "an inflationary depression that is coming very soon".....Bernanke has traded forestalling any short term pain for a worse long term situation.....Time praised Bernanke for 'creative experimentation in expansion of the money supply'....Time said during the 1930's the Fed stubbornly refused to expand the money supply or use imagination or experimentation.....Schiff prediction: "crazy, stupid experiments like the ones Ben Bernanke has been doing.....are going to utterly destroy the country"..... .....the dollar is up a tad and gold is down a bit.....but "[gold] is no bubble".....there are a lot of new dollar bulls now just because they see the overwhelming dollar bearishness.....knee jerk contrarians.....prediction: "this is not a recovery"....."it's phony"....[the Fed] is not going to raise interest rates.....we're just spending stimulus money and they'll bluff and say that inflation is not a problem when it's a serious problem.....Caller 1: Who sets the value of currencies? Is it manipulated? Answer: the dollar index is composed of a basket of several currencies, I think they include the British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen and Swedish krona.....their values are determined in the market. The exception that IS being manipulated is the Chinese yuan (RMB).....China creates the dollar peg by going into the open market and selling RMB until the desired rate of peg is achieved..... Q: If all countries print a lot of new money equally, won't the currencies hold steady in value compared to each other? Answer: all the supply-inflated currencies would decline in value, but "the price of gold would go through the roof because "you can't fool gold"....."I think the dollar will lose value faster" [than other currencies].....Caller 2: Do you think the Chinese government wants to keep its citizens impoverished so they are controllable? Answer: sees the opposite, that impoverished means unhappy and desperate for change or revolution.....Q: What do you think is the next crisis? Answer: real estate is in trouble: option ARM's are a problem "bigger than subprime".....the people who opted for low monthly payments and deferred paying fully for the first 5 years.....they are coming into reset soon.....a lot of people did it to speculate on home appreciation.....instead of an amortizing principal, the principal actually grows during the first years and at the resets these folks will be upside down in their home value to loan ratio while facing suddenly much larger payments.....prediction: "everybody's gonna default"....."it's a nightmare, worse than subprime".....that's why the Fed is buying up mortgages and keeping rates at zero.....it won't be enough.....prediction: "no matter how low [rates] are, nobody's gonna make these payments".....commercial real estate is a mess.....they leveraged up assuming rising rents and high occupancy.....rents are falling.....a friend of Schiff who's in real estate is telling him every tenant is demanding a rent reduction.....credit is getting cut off to commercial real estate.....thinks that unemployment will be worse than it was during the Great Depression (25%) if calculated the same way.....currently it is then 17% rather than the reported 10.2%.....Caller 3: What do you think of 'peak oil'? Answer: thinks oil prices rising now reflects the falling value of the dollar.....thinks the world has plenty of oil, but exploration has been lacking.....technology to extract is improving rapidly.....the newly developing Bakken formation in North Dakota is huge, "the biggest find in the lower 48 in history"..... estimates range from 2 to 4 billion bbls of recoverable oil in the Bakken.....at the US current daily usage of 20 million bbl/day, all of the oil in the Bakken would supply the US for no more than about 200 days..........prediction: "we're gonna print money a lot faster than we drill for oil, so in terms of dollars oil prices are going a lot higher".....bullish on the oil stocks.....esp. international stocks where valuations are better.....Q: What's your take on 'mark to market' accounting? Answer: he likes it and dislikes the current "mark to myth" accounting....that's a reason that the banks can repay the TARP money.....plus the Fed is buying the toxic assets to prop up their values.....banks are borrowing from the Fed at zero and turning around and lending it to the Treasury at 4%.....any bank can make money in this environment.....2009 is a record year for pay for Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley employees.....they should be going bankrupt instead.....the losses are transferred from the banks to the Fed.....Caller: Why buy bullion gold over the ETF, GLD? Answer: with GLD you don't know for certain the gold exists.....auditors can lie.....GLD held in a brokerage account is also publicly visible where the government can get it if they decide to seize gold..... |
| Dec 9, 2009 | Host: Neeraj Chaudhary (Peter Schiff joined later in the show on the phone -- my notes start with his arrival) .....Peter will have to miss some radio shows because of the campaign being the priority.....still doing his video blog regularly though..... .....campaign HQ is open in Milford now.....Schiff moved ahead of Chris Dodd in the polls for the first time this week.....1 point lead.....now help is needed--volunteer at schiffforsenate.com..... .....gold's drop this week is just a little correction, don't worry.....small bounce in the dollar index recently is insignificant, it's going lower.....some banks returning TARP money now is not the good news that they claim.....TARP not going to cost less than they thought, it will be more.....prediction: the banks will need bailouts "six months or a year from now"....."they're using phony accounting to exaggerate the assets on their balance sheets".....'too big to fail' firms are just getting bigger.....coming bailouts will be even bigger.....Obama's policies (spending/stimulus/borrowing) will lead to "massive inflation," if not hyperinflation.....Congress debating medicare expansion plans and socialized health care.....that's "a disaster," we can't even afford the medicare program we have now.....Cap and Trade is "another nail in our economic coffin"....the other remarks tonight duplicated what is elsewhere on this page..... |
| Dec 2, 2009 | Host: Andrew Schiff .....Peter could not host the show tonight because he is attending a political charity dinner that he must.....[I listened to the show, but no notes]..... |
| Nov 25, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....favorable development in the Senate race.....now 2 Republican candidates have dropped out, so the field is narrowed from 5 to 3 candidates.....still running against Schiff are Linda McMahon and a moderate, establishment "tow the line" politician .....15,000 volunteers for his campaign so far.....campaign headquarters is opening on Dec. 1st..... .....the dollar index (DXY) broke below 75 now and closed today at 74.20.....a 14 year low against the yen.....he thinks it's going to all time low on the yen, could take out the prior low and "make a beeline towards 50 yen".....the euro closed at a 52 week high (above $1.51).....Swiss franc above $1 for the first time ever....in 1971 when Nixon cut the dollar's tie to gold, the Swiss franc was only 23 cents.....gold has had 9 consecutive record closes.....silver approaching $19/oz......but "still not a lot of speculative money in the metals" because if it were speculative, silver would "outperform gold" and "gold stocks would lead the way".....lots of talk in the media now of a gold bubble now but Schiff predicts gold will probably 'climb this wall of worry' to $2000/oz. before the doubters understand [that it's not a bubble].....back when gold reached $400/oz. people started talking about a supposed gold bubble.....Schiff did a "top ten list" for signs of a gold bubble back in 2006 which is still on his website.....still little interest in gold from the general public means no bubble.....(asking people on street corners where they buy their gold produces strange reactions)..... .....prediction: expects gold mining stock buyouts from sovereign wealth funds, which has never happened yet....."you know that's coming".....India said they want to buy more IMF gold.....China has only 1.5% of its reserves in gold so needs to buy much more.....contrasts with major developed economies that tend to have 30% or so of reserves in gold..... .....pundits now talking a lot about gold and the dollar.....they worry about a sharp spike in the dollar hurting the markets and gold.....they don't get it....."it's not necessarily the weak dollar, it's the government [policies]" [as the root cause].....when your currency falls, "it's always a bad thing.....you get poorer".....claims the stock market's recent rise is because "the dollar is losing value faster than stocks", making the apparent [nominal] rise in stocks.....prediction: the dollar will not rally.....there's "not a prayer" that the government will implement policies to strengthen the dollar -- [substantial interest rate hikes, tightening of monetary policy, Fed selling of Treasuries and MBS that they've been buying, reducing deficits].....prediction: the "orderly [gradual] decline" of the dollar that some predict is not correct....."there will be a rush to get rid of the dollar" at some point.....it could already be starting.....typically the 4th quarter is bad for the dollar.....talked about not seeing floor support in the dollar's chart..... ....some pundits say there is no inflation on the horizon because long bond yields are so low.....but Schiff believes it is "central banks and speculators" propping up the bond market, "to artificially prop up the dollar"....."there are no real buyers" [of Treasuries]....."no individual investors are buying these bonds".....also it is financial institutions borrowing from the Fed for free and buying long Treasuries at 4% to make a spread......gold at almost $1200/oz. "is a much better indicator that inflation is here and about to get a lot worse".....Caller 1: CNBC is full of talk about gold.....worried that gold is in a bubble. Answer: they have to talk about gold because it keeps making record highs.....people should not have all their money in gold, but it's not a bubble.....Caller 2: what about a weakening Chinese yuan (RMB) since China has also had huge monetary stimulus and the fact of the RMB being pegged to the USD?.....Answer: yes, China is creating too much inflation too, but the difference is that they back it with production and other currency reserves that they can convert into assets.....Q: what about your original recommendation of the Merk currency fund contradicting with your saying to not own paper but own assets instead? Answer: not a contradiction.....if you do want to own paper, own currencies other than the dollar.....Caller 3: why do you like the yen when they have the highest debt ratio [to GDP]? Answer: they have a lot of production and savings unlike the U.S.....Japanese exports will benefit from the rise of Chinese consumer when the RMB rises.....the yen will fall compared to the RMB but rise compared to the dollar, which will collapse.....the yen carry trade is being unwound, supporting the yen.....thinks Japan will reverse course and tighten monetary policy too.....thinks the Singapore dollar will move along with the yen [but has a better yield].....Caller 4: Which Murray Rothbard book is his best? Answer: likes "the one about the Great Depression".....it's listed on the Euro Pac website..... .....Time magazine just called this last decade the "Decade from Hell".....prediction: "the real decade from hell is not this decade but the coming decade"..... |
| Nov 18, 2009 | Host: Neeraj Chaudhary, joined by Hemant Kathuria .....[I listened but no notes this week]..... |
| Nov 11, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....he's heading to Las Vegas this weekend for the 'Wealth Masters International Wealth Conference' at the Paris Hotel.....probably cannot do next week's show because of speaking at a local town hall meeting Wednesday.....spoke last night at his hometown of Weston, CT's town hall meeting.....prior day spoke at Redding..... .....Schiff for Senate campaign website was under hacker attack on moneybomb day, so if your contribution didn't go through, please try again..... .....gold making new highs daily.....dollar index made yearly low today at ~75.....thinks it could crack 71 or 70 by the end of 2009, and then [prediction:] thinks 2010 will be "abysmal" [for the dollar]....."the financial crisis has passed, the currency crisis is the next one coming and it will be much bigger than the financial crisis".....(money losing its value vs. losing money during the financial crisis).....read article today about China diversifying its currency holdings..... last week India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF.....prediction: "ultimately it's the countries with the most gold that will do the best".....U.S. still has a lot of gold and we should hope we don't sell any.....HUI made new 52 week high today....."the economic collapse that I predicted in Crash Proof has barely happened yet...in the end, the collapse that I predicted--we have the currency crisis.....the big drop in the dollar and a run up in gold".....prediction: when that happens "I fully expect gold stocks to be much, much higher than they are today--and the price of gold".....HUI was at 35 ten years ago.....it's up ten fold in 10 years..... .....last week's GDP report was annualized GDP growth of 3.5%....bogus growth because GDP is overstated.....when a US manufacturer outsources its production abroad, it is still counted in GDP.....then the US layoffs also make it appear productivity has gone up.....makes it appear we're becoming more productive when the reality is that we're becoming less productive.....official unemployment hit 10.2%, the highest since 1983.....unofficial rate is 17.5%.....prediction: stimulus will make unemployment go even higher..... .....Chris Dodd is now in the spotlight ranting against the Fed.....he has no business complaining as he was Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, so it was all done under his watch.....Dodd has a plan to strip powers from the Fed and create four new government agencies to have those powers.....Schiff says we should not add new agencies, but abolish many instead.....in the securities industry, even since 1996 when Euro Pacific started, the regulations that have been added have become so burdensome that Euro Pacific could not get off the ground if it were a startup today.....Caller 1: Chinese gov't is encouraging citizens to buy silver. Has seen infomercials on Chinese television on how to buy silver. How about buying it in Korea, where he lives? Answer: unsure about that, but Euro Pacific can sell it to foreigners through the Perth Mint in Australia; call (949) 863-9500, Newport Beach office.....Schiff told story of a circulating video of a guy trying to sell a 1 ounce gold Canadian Maple Leaf on the streets in California -- worth $1100 but nobody wanted to buy it for $50.....they simply didn't recognize it.....since all those people don't know about gold, there must not be a gold bubble.....prediction: "before this [gold] market peaks, everybody is gonna know what a 1 oz. Canadian Maple Leaf looks like".....Caller 2: Will Japan drop its Keynesian approach? Answer: thinks yes. Asian countries have been too worried about propping up the dollar. They'll realize it's better for them to let the dollar fall. Schiff is most bullish on the Asian economies. Caller 3: What about contradictions in what Warren Buffet says in his leftist political views though he idolizes his father, who was a Republican who supported sound money and small government? Answer: he hasn't talked to Buffett, but Buffett's writing reveals he understands the problems of the trade deficit and monetary policy "but he is very reluctant to articulate that in a more pessimistic outlook" [for the economy].....also, "I think he wants to be liked," so takes the liberal side.....Buffet is unequivocal in his bullishness on the U.S. economy. See his Buy American. I Am. Op Ed in the New York Times and his February 2009 letter to shareholders in which he says "America's best days lie ahead." .....Caller 4: Should I invest in one big move or dollar cost average in small investments? Answer: Schiff is so nervous about the dollar that he doesn't recommend holding dollars very long at all. [prediction] "the dollar can't rise in the long run"....."we've got zero percent interest rates, we're printing money like it's going out of style, and as if problems weren't bad enough, we're about to have 4 new federal agencies to overregulate the economy,.....socialized medicine, and maybe cap and trade"...."this is a prescription for complete economic Armageddon".....Caller 5: Since gold mining technology has advanced so much, and lots of mines have opened, doesn't gold seem much less scarce than it historically was? Answer: gold is still "very scarce". "There have been very few major finds in the last decade" and little exploration in the last 2 decades during the bull market in financial assets. Hardly anybody owns gold now, unlike the past. Central banks only own tiny percentages of gold in their reserves. New gold supply doesn't keep pace with all this demand potential.....prediction: "Gold prices have to go much, much higher".....Caller 6: What about the coming commercial real estate bust and its deflationary effects? Answer: Deflationary busts are the cure for inflationary booms. However, "we are not on a real monetary system".....priced in gold, "you'll see deflation run its course".....but priced in dollars prices will rise because of the massive increases in the number of dollars..... |
| Nov 4, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....he will appear tomorrow (Nov. 5) on the Glenn Beck show.....also regularly appears on "Freedom Watch" on Fox with Judge Napolitano.....tomorrow also a Schiff For Senate Moneybomb date so please donate at www.schiffforsenate.com on Nov. 5th.....need to show grassroots support, unlike the other candidates who don't have it....his 4 opponents in primary have "all the backing of the Republican establishment" and a lot of wealth....."Tom Foley was a big fund raiser for George Bush" and is "tapped into the Republican fund raising machine".....Linda McMahon talking about spending $50 million of her own money.....Schiff's been very busy in the last month on the campaign, though it's not that visible yet.....tomorrow debuts a brand new expanded campaign website (same URL).....campaign team has been organized.....building out a program for volunteers -- the system is not ready yet, but once it's ready those who have volunteered will be contacted.....asking for 10,000 to 20,000 volunteers to donate an hour a day.....they will "make it fun and entertaining".....in the last week he appeared in CT on a local Fox show, and also "Face the State"..... .....biggest news "by far" is India's central bank now purchasing 200 metric tonnes of gold from the IMF.....months ago when rumors flew that IMF would sell a lot gold, there was worry it would depress the price.....Schiff predicted then there was nothing to worry about, as there would be plenty of central banks that would love to buy the IMF's gold.....IMF is "stupid for selling it".....India after this purchase still has 93% of its reserves in paper (mainly dollars).....China gold reserves are only 1.5% in gold..... "[China] needs to buy gold in a big, big way".....[emerging and developing] central banks are "so underweighted in gold and flush with paper dollars".....Bernanke said today that even though the economy is recovering, the Fed has to maintain an interest rate of zero "indefinitely".....gold rose $25 and ounce on the day of the news of India buying....now closing in on $1100 an ounce.....the Dow is now worth 9 ounces of gold -- a 10% drop from a few weeks ago.....prediction: the Dow will go to 8 ounces of gold "relatively soon", and by [some time] next year the Dow will be worth just 5 ounces of gold.....(could be Dow: 10,000 Gold: $2,000 or it could be Dow: 8,000 Gold: $1,600, etc.)....."it's going to happen".....just keep buying gold and silver.....the charts are "extremely bullish" for both.....HUI Index is well below its highs of 2009 [and also 2008].....though gold is at record highs, gold mining stocks have come down and are a good value.....call Euro Pacific to talk to a broker about specific gold stocks [cannot recommend specificly on the show due to SEC broker regulations]..... .....Schiff spoke today at a commodity conference at NYSE and spoke to Fox Business News afterwards.....Nouriel Roubini spoke there too, saying that there is a huge carry trade 'global bubble' in the US dollar.....Roubini says when these trades get covered, the dollar has to rise.....Schiff disagrees and says that this already happened in 2008 and won't recur.....one mistake of Roubini is that he thinks people are selling dollars to "buy risky assets"....Schiff says its the opposite: they see the risk is in the dollar itself, not the assets they buy with them.....also, Schiff sees in Euro Pac client accounts, as well as generally, that divestiture of dollars to buy these assets is not being done on margin, therefore there will be no "giant margin call"....the 3rd point where Schiff disagrees with Roubini is in Roubini's analysis that the stock markets are in a bubble right now.....Schiff says that its no bubble because many foreign markets have only rebounded to reasonable levels that are well below their highs -- "if a stock drops from $10 to $1, and then rises to $5 or $6, to say it's then in a bubble -- you're missing the fact that it dropped 90%.....for no real reason".....the yen carry trade lasted for over a decade, and the dollar carry trade has just started....."I think it will be here a lot longer and be far more profitable than the yen carry trade ever was".....finally, Nouriel Roubini is wrong on decoupling -- he doesn't see how the rest of the world can do well [while the US is mired in problems].....Roubini is also "not bearish enough on the US economy".....prediction: "I'm pretty sure that the facts are going to bear me out on this one"..... .....'after the fact' authors are getting lavished with praise for their new books coming out on the financial crisis -- [Charles Gasparino (Amazon rank #15), David Faber].....they get invited on CNBC and Larry Kudlow, the shows Schiff used to do before the crisis when he got laughed at.....they get the major book reviews (Wall Street Journal).....Crash Proof was "never reviewed by anybody".....anybody can a write a book after the fact -- why don't they give credit to Schiff for foreseeing the crisis?.....but CNBC "Fast Money" now calls Schiff weekly because he is "a ratings machine".....Caller 1: what about ETF's of gold and silver? Answer: possible risk of government confiscation in the future and risk of accounting fraud -- do they really own the metal they claim to? Schiff doesn't have an opinion on likelihood, other than to be aware of the risks......hedge funds seem to be piling into gold now....."I don't think gold is that high right now".....given the amount of currency that must be printed, "gold is still cheap".....Caller 2: your thoughts on real estate going forward -- in your mortgage bankers' speech you talked of a 70-80% correction in real estate at the time. Answer: the 70-80% was not for the whole real estate market, but only for certain "worst case examples" of homes in foreclosure.....I was forecasting about a 30% general decline nationwide, and 50% in the bubble states of Arizona, Nevada, Florida, etc.....government support has kept a lot of supply off the market.....I believe because of all the money to be printed, "the real (not nominal) decline in real estate will be even greater".....prediction: "no question that prices will continue falling in terms of gold".....huge glut of houses, plus we're still building more.....Caller 3: how do you compare gold, foreign stocks and commodities as investments? Answer: he views gold as the relative safer choice, since it is money, then individual commodities, and finally stocks being the more risky bet.....stocks can go bankrupt.....commodities have no yield though.....the biggest risk is holding the dollar..... (caller: how will China sustain its dollar losses when the dollar fails?) Answer: prediction: the Chinese currency, RMB, will [be depegged and then] skyrocket in purchasing power -- "maybe five-fold or more".....China has a lot more RMB than dollars despite their high investment in dollars..... |
| Oct 28, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....call in number for the show is 888-678-9597.....his Senate campaign "kicking into higher gear".....tomorrow he'll be in Hartford, CT recording for local television shows ("Face the State", airing on a Sunday) and interviewing with the "Hartford Current".....after elections of next week, media will shift focus to the bigger elections of 2010.....speaking at Harvard in Boston on Nov. 7th..... schiffsuperbomb.com is orchestrating a one day money bomb for Nov. 5th.....Schiff believes he raised more than any of his opponents in the last quarter -- thanked his supporters....please keep it up to draw the media's attention.....also "the most important thing" is to volunteer your time.....you can work from home for the campaign with just your phone and PC.....join Team Schiff at schiffforsenate.com ....improvements coming to the campaign website soon..... .....(platform) "the only new legislation I want to write is repealing the existing legislation".....key is to get others on Capitol Hill to "understand that they've spent their careers destroying this country.....that our only salvation is to undo all the damage that they've done"..... .....been doing daily video blogs on youtube on the markets.....[last few days is the] "first meaningful correction in a while on some of the [foreign] stocks that we've been buying "......today Dow closed at 9762, down 119 pts......Nasdaq down 7% in last 5 days-huge.....(commodity currencies) AUS$ and NZ$ down over 2%.....yen up over 1%.....weakness in gold, gold stocks.....all these moves reminiscent of 2008 'dollar rally' market situation......question is whether that trend will replay.....Schiff thinks it's unlikely (but not impossible).....in 2008, with the "markets falling apart" there was still the fear that the gov't might let "the house of cards come tumbing down".....now that the gov't has "showed its hand" that it will prop up and bail out everybody, that fear is gone....."anything the gov't does to [stimulate the economy with spending] causes the dollar to go down".....raising interest rates, contracting credit or shrinking the money supply would cause the dollar to rise, but then "real estate prices will fall, stock prices will fall, more companies will fail, and more banks will fail".....thinks there is greater risk in holding US dollars and having the bottom fall out [inflation] than holding stocks and having them go down [temporarily].....if you want to hold cash, he thinks the yen is an "infinitely safer position to be in [than the dollar]".....prediction: "one of these days I think [a complete US dollar collapse] is going to happen".....Asians will wake up and see what fools they have been and stop buying our debt and taking our dollars in trade..... .....$8000 home buying credit is now being expanded and extended by Congress.....will also apply for non-first time homebuyers trading up to more expensive houses.....it's gov't playing into the politics of the real estate industry.....huge mistake that just weakens the economy more..... .....inflation doesn't mean that all prices rise "simultaneously or equally".....predicts that rents will fall.....rents and owners equivalent rent represent 40% of the CPI, but other prices will rise rapidly.....real estate prices have local demand while commodity demand is global, so sees glut of housing and disastrous US economy to mean falling housing costs, while goods with global demand should see much higher prices.....in particular, expects energy prices to rise a lot.....28:40 prediction: new housing construction and commercial structure construction will at some point stop.....lots of unemployment for construction workers.....Caller 1: In a hyperinflation scenario, why would anyone hold any fiat currency of any country? Answer: someone living in Zimbabwe who owns foreign stocks has dividend income that still has purchasing power.....says it would be imprudent to recommend to clients to put everything into gold and silver coins in their basement.....Caller 2: What about the Canadian energy trusts and the tax law change effective in 2011? Answer: some trusts have decided to "reinvent themselves" in suspending dividends and pursuing growth.....some dividend cuts have come from lower profits, e.g. natural gas companies with lower gas prices.....still, we like Canadian trusts and even the lowered dividends are still great yields.....typical portfolio as recommended by europac is about 5-10% in these trusts..... |
| Oct 21, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff briefly, then his brother, and fellow Europac officer, Andrew Schiff .....Peter phoning in from a "political function" in NYC so only has a minute to talk before it starts.....US dollar index hit low for year today - under 75 intraday.....euro is over $1.50.....oil closed around $82/bbl.....today Peter appeared on CNBC 'Fast Money'.....they unjustly attacked his record on investing, ignoring the facts -- that now gold is at a record high while US stocks are nowhere near their high despite the big rally..... .....Crash Proof 2.0 now released and on sale at Amazon.com 
.....be aware it is the updated version of 'Crash Proof' [of 2006] with 80 new pages of updates....updates are appended to each chapter; not a completely new book.....needed to
update the 3 year old original with so much that has happened..........lots of news currently about the weak dollar, but few seem to realize the importance of the falling dollar to the average American....."we need to withdraw all the stimulus right now".....prediction: weak dollar will eventually cause weakness in the bond market.....people aren't yet worried with yields low [bond prices not collapsing].....Brazilian currency up 35% against dollar this year; their gov't trying to keep it from rising too much against the dollar by imposing a new transaction tax on foreigners "buying their stocks".....Brazil's dollar reserves have grown to $400 bn -- quadruple the total foreign exchange reserves of the United States.....prediction: eventually foreign governments will "come to their senses and reverse this policy" [of supporting the US dollar].....when they do, we are in "serious, serious trouble".....[exit Peter] [Andrew Schiff].....Peter is in the full swing of his campaign now, so please excuse him if he cannot always host the radio show the full hour..... .....since interest rates are low and stable, and inflation mild, there is little "political backlash" or public outcry about the weakening dollar.....until we get high inflation officials can get away with 'talking' a strong dollar without actually doing it..... .....college tuition statistics just came out -- rising around 5.0-5.5% from the prior year, despite other prices generally having fallen in the recession.....the reason for this tuition inflation is the easy government money subsidizing higher education.....it hurts, not helps, students because they end up with more debt from college.....exact same type of dynamic [easy gov't money] that caused the housing bubble.....government ironically the problem, not the solution..... |
| Oct 14, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff, hosting from Hawaii .....over 700 people are now signed up to attend his Chicago seminar this Friday.....as full as it has ever been.....database of Europac mailing list has grown from 6,000 4-5 years ago to almost 190,000 today.....the dollar still "getting hammered in the markets day after day after day".....closed today at 52 week low ~75 dollar index......record low was in 2008.....Euro above 149, looks like a "breakout".....new high for the year.....expects it to hit 155 to the dollar in relatively short order.....Swiss franc above 99 cents.....could be all time high against dollar.....Canadian dollar around 99 cents and very strong.....new high for Aussie dollar -- closing in on parity with dollar.....NZ dollar at new high at 75 cents.....already seeing foreigners shopping in the US with their strong currencies....."everything's on sale" for them.....not good for Americans "because we're having our stuff bought out from under us at fire sale prices".....we're only getting paid with dollars that are losing value.....prediction: this dollar decline is going to "gather a lot of momentum because there is no way to stop it -- the only way to stop it is for foreign governments to intervene on the dollar's behalf".....but unlikely, and US gov't cannot intervene since it doesn't have the foreign reserves.....and selling gold from Fort Knox would be "really stupid"......the administration will act like a falling dollar is a good thing, but it's not.....we do need a weaker dollar now because the US economy is so uncompetitive and we have so much debt -- the weaker dollar is like a bad report card.....US needs to have the courage to raise interest rates to halt the dollar carry trade, and buoy the dollar on forex.....the Dow is above 10,000, real estate market is up a little bit, and banks are lending "because nobody believes that we're gonna do anything to stop the dollar from falling".....gov't economists are saying that the dollar could drop ten or twenty percent without worries of inflation....."how could anybody think that?"....."how could our money lose 10-20% of its value, but then we don't need any more money to buy stuff?"....."stock prices too rose through the roof in Zimbabwe because they had massive inflation.....except the prices for everything else rose so it didn't matter.....look at commodities and oil now -- they're moving up fast.....oil [in breaking out] could be headed to $90/bbl....."prices are rising because of inflation.....[claimed that the stock market has risen simply from inflation] -- "it's not because the US economy is booming -- it's hardly booming at all"....."the only thing booming is the presses as they print money".....people are certainly going to start to notice the price increases in gasoline and food.....Caller 1: What about claims that the US designing of products is more of the creation of the value in the products than the foreign manufacturing? Answer: there may be something to that, but the bottom line is that we can't run perpetual trade deficits -- "the proof is in the pudding" that we have huge trade deficits and go deeper into debt as a nation every year, so any extra design value has not been enough to overcome [a net loss of capital to foreign trade partners].....if we outsourced manufacturing in a way that we ended up with a surplus in the current account, that would be a different story.....Caller 2: How do you think the collapse of the dollar will unfold? Answer: his guess is that the dollar will slowly lose value, but when those holding dollars finally conclude the dollar won't turn around there will be a rush for the exits.....Caller 3: (Canadian) What's your opinion on investing in "cottage country land"? (vacation property) Answer: thinks there are better places than real estate for your money now, though it's better than holding dollars.....Canadian vacation property should do a lot better than US property because of US economic socialization, assaults on free markets & the Constitution will "forever undermine our standard of living and make the average American poorer" relative to current levels vis a vis the rest of the world.....so US assets/property "are going to be marked down".....Caller 4: Berkshire Hathaway sold all their 130 million ounces of silver.....how would you convince Warren Buffett to get back into silver? Answer: silver is an inflation hedge [with big inflation/fallen dollar sure to come].....thinks silver is headed for "$20 at a minimum".....thinks gold will move up until silver hits a new high and then maybe a correction.....would not be deterred by the correction -- thinks gold and silver are "going much, much higher".....Caller 5: What is the least overvalued area for investing now? Answer: you should speak to a broker about your particular situation.....in normal times, there is safety in CD's or bonds, but now the risk is in holding dollars so it's other assets like stocks that are less risky.....Caller 6: Taking Econ class in college now and they're using Ben Bernanke's textbook. Answer: "the whole concept of macroeconomics is all nonsense"....."it's all Keynes".....Could Bernanke "talk up" the dollar? Answer: it might work for a while, but like crying wolf it won't matter in the end..... |
| Oct 7, 2009 | Host: Peter Schiff .....tomorrow night he will be in New Orleans for a gold conference.....next Weds. will be in Hawaii -- will try to host show from Hawaii but no guarantees.....will be in Chicago directly after Hawaii and Europac clients have been sent invitations for Chicago seminar at the Hyatt downtown.....if you want to bring 'Crash Proof' he will autograph books there.....radio show call in number is 888-678-9597..... .....Gold at $1000/oz.+ hit an all time high this week.....silver up big this week to $17+....yen, Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar all hit 52 week highs this week.....Swiss franc and Euro strong as well.....British pound weak, like the US dollar.....the catalyst for this dollar weakness is lots of talk and rumors about pricing oil in something other than dollars in the future.....prediction: "it is inevitable that the dollar will no longer be the unit in which oil is traded....and that the dollar will no longer be the Reserve currency"......only question is 'when'?....."[so] we are on a collision course [with] disaster" because of what we are doing -- "huge deficits, interest rates at zero, flooding the world with money".....sees "no sign whatsoever" that policy makers might reverse their current course of propping up the phony economy with massive spending.....US dollar is propped up because oil-producing nations accept dollars.....prediction: when that changes the dollar will plunge and "all the real rules of economics that we have been avoiding all these years because of this [dollar denominated oil] status, will come and rain on us like a downpour, and we will be forced with reality very abruptly....we're going to have to live within our greatly diminished means".....Australia is the first major central bank that has begun raising interest rates.....Federal Reserve won't have courage to "aggressively raise interest rates" to put a floor under the dollar because that would "pull the rug out" from the stock market, real estate and the economy.....the resulting dollar carry trade [because of low US interest rates] will be "that much more profitable" and "put more downward pressure on the dollar"..... .....he was written up in a Washington Post interview over the weekend -- good interview, but some bloggers twisted his words to claim he thinks he is on a mission to get into the Senate as some kind of "nazi killer".....he only claimed that he has no interest in reelection after one term, so will be beholden to no one.....the threat of course is not nazis, but the "assault on the Constitution, government run wild, assault on working Americans and [trashing] of the economy".....career politicians won't risk their careers to do the unpopular "right thing"..... .....subscribe to his youtube channel "schiff report" and get notifications when new videos get posted.....Caller 1: (Australian) Bought gold at $900US but hasn't shared in gold's gains yet because of the strong Aussie dollar having eaten up the gains and he is actually down.....Am I better off investing in gold stocks in Australia -- less currency risk? Answer: Australian central bank and economy are much better than the US so you don't need to own gold as much.....your currency is sounder than US dollars.....I think gold will hold up better than even the Aussie dollar though.....but since you can earn interest on your money, gold would have to appreciate in Australian dollars more than what you can earn in interest.....as far as gold mining stocks -- if you buy them in countries with weakening currencies, then "their profits might be growing faster than the profits of the Australian gold mining companies, unless of course they've hedged"..... but that weakening currency against the AUS$ will cause the share price and dividends to suffer attrition when converted back into AUS$ in your Australian brokerage account.....you could end up down even if the stock is up .....you can also open an account at Europac though not a US citizen.....Caller 2: If the US dollar suffers hyperinflation, what will happen to neighboring countries' currencies? Answer: it depends on how their central banks react.....expects that they will be more sensible than the US, so those currencies will "rise dramatically" against the dollar.....prediction: gold should outperform because a failing US dollar will cause people to question fiat currencies in general.....Caller 3: What advice do you have for people who don't have savings? Answer: stock up on non-perishable food items, buy things in bulk, you can use stuff to barter later, real stuff will hold its value through inflationary times, save copper pennies (dated before 1982), see Crash Proof for careers that will have brighter futures..... .....thinks the price of gold should be a lot higher -- "I think that gold should already be trading at $1500-$2000 an ounce".....it shows "how little the world understands what's going on, but they could wake up pretty quicky"....just buy gold and don't worry about the short term moves.....prediction: "several years from now [Canadians] will be able to buy condos in Florida for ten cents on the dollar".....Caller 4: why not get rid of the Fed instead of reforming it? Answer: ideally, we would abolish the Fed, but that's a radical proposal to try to get through.....also, what would replace it then?.....in reform, the Fed could go back to its original basic functions such as when it used to be forbidden from buying Treasury debt.....Caller 5: what do you think of the idea of picking up and moving to China? Is the US a sinking ship? Answer: yes, it is but I'm trying to get to the helm (Senate) and change that....."it's a long shot" though.....Americans moving to China will not be unlike the immigrants who came to the US in the past..... |
.....[Brad Cook comments:] .....gold has been in a secular bull market since Mar 2001.....gold making new highs in dollars right now barely a year after the global economic
meltdown.....silver typically follows gold -- "plays catch up" after gold rises.....so silver bull market started in Nov 2003.....three waves between 2003 and 2009 when silver lagged
gold.....then it would catch up quickly.....ratio gold:silver got as high as 80.....ratio in earth's crust is around 16:1, also the same historical ratio that long held in coinage in the
past.....Brad Cook is a geologist who cofounded Endeavor Silver in 2002 when silver was lagging gold.....traditional mine model takes 5-10 years to develop.....in 2003 in Mexico,
Endeavor found "fully built and permited mines" and ore milling facilities ready to go.....(aside) every year or so a new "giant or super-giant" deep oil field is discovered in the Gulf of
Mexico.....Endeavor is so successful because of buying these ready and permited mines.....avoided long exploration, analysis, permiting, development time and capital
needs.....model being duplicated by others now.....
.....What do you expect for the price of silver? .....prediction: Cook believes silver is entering another wave where it is going to rise over the next six months....."typical move" would be
as much as 50% higher.....What about the drought in India?.....Cook says that fundamental supply/demand of silver has more to do with the price in stable economies.....when
economies struggle and silver is in investment demand rather than industrial, price is less of a factor for demand.....now the main price driver is investment demand, not
industrial.....when the global economies are humming, all the copper, gold and zinc mines produce considerable supply of by-product silver too, (the extra supply keeping a lid on its
price).....so contracting economies reduce the supply of new silver.....Caller 1: Is Endeavor a takeover candidate? Answer: (Cook) yes, but not now.....
.....Caller 2: What about 20 yr level term life insurance and also how will life insurers fare? Answer: (Hemant) The fixed premium you pay will fall in purchasing power the same as the
payout benefit, so it is a wash.....life insurers use a static, nominal dollar model without factoring in inflation (outside the historical CPI).....when Greenspan pumped the money supply
before Y2K it took 18 or 19 months to suddenly hit as higher prices.....prediction: we'll get it again from the 90% monetary base increase Bernanke has already done.....Caller 3:
What about the deflation theories? Answer: Elliot wave theorists have had to back down on their failed precious metal top predictions.....Hemant puts clients into products that
protect against temporary deflation as well, such as the Endeavor convertible debentures.....gives exposure to the metal while protecting from short term deflation..... Peter Schiff joins on the phone: he was with Rand Paul today who just officially announced he is running for US Senate in KY.....
.....on cash for clunkers, "stupid idea....clueless... to think the solution to our problems is to destroy assets and take on more debt".....#1 car in program is Toyota Corollas, so
we'll increase the trade deficit.....prediction: "the depression will be full on by 2012.....inflation will be raging out of control.....we'll have millions more unemployed.....people
think that the recession is ending....they see the stock market up, they think, oh, this is a sign of recovery -- this is nonsense.....2 months before the recession the market made
all time highs.....the market is clueless.....just because the market is rallying now doesn't mean anything.....the people who are saying we are leaving the recession - they're
the same people who didn't even know the recession was here when it was here....so if economists couldn't even forecast the recession that had already started, how can
they forecast the end of that recession?....this recession is nowheres near over.....going deeper in debt.....more businesses will fail or be unhealthily propped up by
bailouts.....foreign stock markets are simply dragging the US stock market higher.....the dollar keeps weakening, hit new yearly low today, 77.50 index.....I think we could be
in a full blown dollar crisis, even as soon as the end of this year.....if we break below 70 dollar index, it could be a quick drop to 60, sending commodities soaring and interest
rates well above 5% on the 30 year, which would "force the Feds hand"..........there is no Fed "exit strategy", like the phony strong dollar policy.....they will either raise interest
rates squeezing the economy, or not raise interest rates and things will be even worse.....
Hyperinflation USA Home | Gold is a Bubble | The Fed and Inflation | How to Get Published | My Book Info | History of US Money | Author Q & A | Roth IRA Tip
Sep 30, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....today ends the quarter.....global stocks "very, very strong" this quarter....even US stocks had their strongest quarter in 10 years, but not as strong as foreign stocks....US dollar index now at 76
1/2 -- close to a low for the quarter.....Australian dollar today hit a 52 week high at $.88 on USD.....almost 50% gain on the US dollar in 6 months! (partly recovering prior losses).....thinks wide
basket of currencies are likely to make record highs against the dollar in 2009-2010....Japanese yen looks the strongest...."the dollar is dropping against every currency" so it's not just a carry
trade unwinding going on here but rather evidence of the weak fundamentals of the dollar....."[the Fed] is going to create inflation, and therefore it's destroying the value of the dollar".....expects US
stocks will go higher, but not outpace inflation.....they might outpace the CPI, but "the CPI is meaningless [in respect to] the real rate of inflation"....."a far better metric is going to be the price
of gold, or maybe even other currencies".....doesn't think US stock market will beat gold, or even beat a "mere bank account in most other currencies" except for short periods of time.....ISM
number reported today -- sank back down to 46, below expectations.....shows a real contraction in the economy.....jobs report shows another 200,000 non-farm job losses in August....."hardly
good news as spun by the media as 'smallest decline in a year'......still a big monthly loss.....
.....the false boost in spending "green shoots" now will be at a huge cost later.....home sales boost from FHA $8,000 tax credit with 3.5% down payment is a terrible idea.....no incentive to make mortgage
payment if home value drops or job lost.....increasing the national debt for this program.....might get positive GDP growth this quarter, but every time the gov't stimulates again, the cost is greater for an even smaller stimulus boost.....the debt just keeps racking up.....
.....Fed official has just said they'll need to drain the liquidity as fast as they provided it......"impossible"; they can't dump a trillion dollars in toxic assets or Treasuries into the market.....
.....we desperately need to convince Congress that the toxic mix of government intervention and Wall Street is what is taking this economy down, not capitalism and free markets, as Michael
Moore would claim.....please contribute to Schiff for Senate campaign or volunteer....you can make phone calls from home without spending a dime if you want.....
.....Caller 1: Your thoughts on silver, gold, or a bimetallic standard for a currency? Answer: U.S. was bimetallic, per the Constitution.....either is preferable to fiat paper.....pros and cons of different
metal backings a complicated matter.....gold concentrates so much wealth it's hard to buy low dollar items like a loaf of bread with it.....however, if we go back to a metal backing, today it could be done electronically
so you wouldn't need gold or silver in your pocket.....Caller 2: Gold and silver actually declined with the market panic in Oct/Nov 2008..why? Also, do you think that now gold/silver have decoupled
from the stock market? Answer: pretty much all classes of assets declined during the panic due largely to high leverage.....then shorts saw the trend and they drove assets down further.....it was a rush to cash and
covering debts so not a statement about gold at the time.....one day about a month ago the DOW dropped 200 points and gold ended higher -- a good sign of the decoupling of gold....."it's not panic mode anymore",
"sell everything".....gold has recovered 100% while US stocks have only recovered half way to their peak of 14,000.....
.....prediction: FDIC recent announcement that it needs $45 billion, raised from charging banks fees, is the tip of the iceberg.....firstly, the banks got infusions at a cost to the taxpayers in bailouts, and ultimately the $45 billion FDIC deficit
will mushroom to hundreds of billions, "if not a trillion".....Americans will all pay in the form of inflation.....Caller 3: So far the money the banks have received has not been lent out (to pyramid the
money supply) and the Fed is even paying interest on these reserves, so without the lending getting the money out into the economy, how does this affect the inflation scenario? Answer: the Fed
paying interest on reserves reduces the incentive for lending, but "at some point those dynamics will change unless the Fed keeps increasing the rate it pays"....."I don't think they'll put [the
money] out in the form of consumer based lending".....rather, lending to investors; "hedge funds or speculators who will pay a much higher rate of return".....hyperinflation is not around the corner,
"we'll have high inflation before we have the opportunity for it to turn into hyperinflation"....."the money supply should be contracting dramatically based on all these bad loans" [but it's
not].....prediction: trillions of dollars are being hoarded around the world which will come into the marketplace, regardless of what the banks do.....Schiff claims that we haven't had the deflation during this
recession so far that we should have had because it has simply been offset by inflation(!).....deflation is good as it "eases the pain" -- the gov't not allowing deflation this time as they are pushing for
inflation (better for them as debtors -- "the US gov't can't survive deflation").....the gold standard and monetary disclipline allowed the deflation during the Great Depression.....
.....there's not a lot of
viable places for the banks to lend now.....thinks later when the dollar 'cracks' and the dollar carry trade goes into high gear, the banks will use the money to get into other currencies for the better
return than what the Fed pays.....Caller 4: Should Canadians get into gold? Answer: yes, everybody should own some gold.....What's a black swan or worst case event that could derail your
investment strategies? Answer: a recurrence of 2008 -- assets going down and the dollar rising.....thinks the only thing that could produce that outcome is very aggresive raising of interest rates
by the Fed, causing more bank failures and a bigger real estate bust.....seems very doubtful as it would be a total reversal of what they've done so far.....plus a massive US recession is unlikely to
actually benefit the dollar [regardless of a shrinking money supply].....Caller 5: What about SDR's talk coming out of G-20. Answer: Special Drawing Rights as a new reserve currency does not
make sense.....before the dollar, there was no "Reserve Currency" -- it was gold.....thinks an official Reserve status might be in name only as central banks are likely to diversify on their own into
various currencies and more gold.....Caller 6: Comment on Senate campaign: caller thinks moderates are turned off by capitalism & siding with big business.....suggests to Schiff a strategy to
deemphasize "Capitalism" in his campaign.....Schiff responds by saying he explains in his speeches why capitalism and small government is good.....Caller 7: Gold crashed after 1980 for 20
years....do we risk that happening again? Answer: Getting the economy (stocks) back on track and gold to weaken after 1980 required Paul Volcker and Ronald Reagan turning policy around 180
degrees.....we have their opposites in Obama and Bernanke, plus it would take "much more herculean efforts this time".....so "I don't think we'll be selling gold anytime soon".....if he sees conditions
for moving back into US stocks and selling gold, he'll be loudly announcing such a strategy change.....
Sep 23, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....[first couple minutes were cut off in the recorded archive].....Crash Proof 2.0 is simply an update of the original Crash Proof with an updated Introduction, 2009 updates on each chapter, and
updated Conclusion.....entire unedited Crash Proof of 2007 is included in Crash Proof 2.0, plus about 80 new pages.....CP 2.0 is not a completely new book from the first Crash Proof, so don't expect
that.....thinks "somebody with a competing book" gave him a 1 star review on Amazon under an assumed name, critical of his clients' losses in 2008..... [to Peter, should you read this:
sounds like this may refer to me.....rest assured that reviewer is not me....I have never left an Amazon review of any of your books under any name....I also never critique your investment record or
clients' portfolio performance in any way -- I only address your macroeconomic ideas and predictions -- never your investing record.....I don't view my book as 'competing' with Crash Proof since a
buying decision is not a 'one or the other' proposition (it seems many people buy both).....in fact, your fan base growing I would think would probably boost my book's sales.....I therefore have no incentive to try to undermine sales of any of your books by leaving a bad review, but regardless,
I will never leave any Amazon review of any of your books to avoid any appearance of impropriety] .....
.....his next appearance is a brief one in New Orleans on Oct. 8th, followed by a private meeting in Hawaii on Oct. 10th.....then speaking at Hispanic Caucus annual conference in Chicago shortly
after.....
.....the Fed's statement this week is the same old 'propaganda'.....Bernanke says economic activity is picking up, the economy is on the mend, but he'll keep interest rates "at zero
indefinitely".....not so, this spending is just running up debt and squandering money.....Bernanke keeping interest rates so low tells the real story that he doesn't believe the economy is really
recovering.....he's keeping rates at zero compared to Alan Greenspan bottoming out at one percent in the last recession.....now, in supposed recovery, we can't even get back up to "emergency level
of one percent of Alan Greenspan??".....truth is Bernanke knows this phony economy is "on life support" of massive gov't stimulus and 0% interest by the Fed.....
.....political opposition of Schiff's senate run now saying he "wants" or is "happy about" the recession.....Schiff doesn't want it, but says recession is the only cure.....better to have it now than a
worse one later.....critics are saying his theories are 'crazy' or 'idiotic'.....then why is he "the one guy that predicted this stuff" when everybody else was wrong.....the mainstream pundits are the
kooks.....Caller 1: has a whole life policy worth $150,000 -- what to do with it? Answer: Schiff thinks whole life is not good and term insurance is "a much better way to insure against death"; I don't
think you want $150k sitting around waiting to be destroyed by Bernanke's printing press, so cash it in and invest it -- talk to a Europac broker.....prediction: worst case the value of your $150k goes
to zero, but even in the best case scenario the dollar will probably lose at least half of its value from here....."Inflation tax" not only taxes your interest, but also the principal.....Caller 2: All of
Germany's gold reserves are held by the United States.....why? and will the US return it to Germany on demand or is there a conspiracy?.....Answer: didn't realize we hold 100% of Germany's gold
-- maybe the US Gov't would try to seize it during crisis.....we defaulted on our promise [gold backing] of Federal Reserve Notes before.....Caller 3: What do you think of the G20 meeting in
Pittsburgh? Answer: "generally nothing of any significance comes out of" [these meetings].....posted a video on his video blog yesterday on this topic -- find it at 'schiff report' channel on youtube.....prediction:
any bounce in the dollar he thinks will be "short-lived".....Obama wants to increase savings in the US, but savings can't possibly overcome the $1.8 trillion gov't deficit.....Caller 4: Could central
banks around the world seize citizens' gold to shore up their fiat currencies? Answer: Sure. We did it before [under Roosevelt].....thinks the US is the most likely country to do that since we are in
the worst shape financially.....so he advocates having some gold stored outside the US to keep it safe.....Caller 5: If the US repudiates its debt, could that boost the value of the dollar? Answer:
thinks we would lose angry trading partners and so the dollar could still actually go down, but probably less.....prediction: it's impossible for us to pay the national debt.....so we have to
restructure the debt....."our politicians have borrowed and promised our way into bankruptcy".....
.....called for volunteers for his campaign.....needs "thousands" of volunteers to educate CT voters, for fund raising and building Schiff name recognition, making phone calls.....volunteer signup at
schiffforsenate.com. Caller 6: Did you expect the Fed's message of today? Answer: the Fed tells the market what it wants to hear: a) the economy
is improving and b) we aren't raising interest rates.....(caller) what about crude supply and metals near term?.....Answer: ....don't think oil will affect metals that much, "some [small]
correlation".....crude oil prices I think are going a lot higher, particularly with the Chinese backing off their US dollar support as they are "obviously laying the foundation" for moving away from the
dollar .....anything boosting the value of the Chinese currency (RMB) will boost their purchasing power and thus the demand for oil.....Caller 7: What is your outlook on Canadian Energy Trusts with
the 2011 taxation coming? Answer: .....I've recommended them since 1995 or 1996 and they've always been core holdings.....some have done better than others.....one is a top five pick for the next
5 years.....[didn't answer about the new Canadian tax law coming in 2011].....Caller 8: you had said a "currency crisis" might be here in 2009 but that "hyperinflation" would be a few years off --
what's the difference? Answer: [rambling response didn't explain any difference between those two terms].....Caller 9: what's better in buying a home between waiting for a much lower price a
couple years from now and then paying cash, or buying now and letting rampant inflation reduce the real value of the mortgage? Answer: .....hard to say, but if you get an FHA tax credit and can
put down a tiny down payment you're probably better off with the mortgage now, but if you are not eligible for FHA and have to put up a large down payment you're probably better off to wait.....Caller
9: If the Fed creates money instantly electronically, how does that differ from inflation caused by physical printing of money? Answer: it's quicker than needing ink and paper, so potentially we
could have "more rapid inflation".....
Sep 16, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....last week he didn't do the show since he was in Poland speaking and on an economic panel.....sometimes cannot do this show if opportunities come up that will allow spreading his message to
new ears.....Poles applauded his negative discussion of the Federal Reserve and the US gov't bailouts/stimulus spending.....a woman who was one of the Polish event organizers was shocked at how high income
taxes are in the United States....."we don't want to be the high tax, big regulation economy" - it's "the road to serfdom".....
.....he finally got a finished hard copy of his new book and is pleased how it turned out.....lots of additional and revised material since the original "Crash Proof" was published in 2007.....it's
official release is next week [September 22] but the book is already available on Amazon.com -- here
.....original 'Crash Proof' has
sold over 175,000 copies but never made New York Times best seller list, or was professionally reviewed.....but Kiplinger picked it as a top five title and Amazon picked it as a top ten in Business.....hopefully CP
2.0 will be reviewed or make the bestseller list.....this Saturday he'll speak at Philadephia for 'Campaign for Liberty' event; maybe at Valley Forge??.....
.....Schiff's latest newsletter is delayed, but should be out in the next week.....foreign stock markets still racing up, making US market's gains look paltry.....GLD pushed above 1000, closed at 999,
silver above $17 an ounce.....US dollar is particularly weak against the Japanese yen.....likely successor to Japanese prime minister just made "very, very negative comments" about the dollar and
says he won't devalue the yen to help Japanese exports to America ("prop up the dollar").....prediction: "[Japan] will get a strong currency because they deserve one".....carry trade has reversed from
last year when everybody bought dollars -- now the opposite is happening with the funding currency of the carry trade being the dollar.....a nation's currency's strength is a reflection of its economy, so our economy's
big problems must be reflected in a weak dollar.....productivity, growth, savings, not running deficits, trade surpluses would create a strong currency as a 'report card'.....
.....amazed by foreign
stocks rising 5 or 10 percent a day....relatively speaking, "you can barely tell the US stock market is going up".....
.....in Obama's latest speech, he's taking credit for solving the crisis.....not so, we're just going back to "normal' of overspending and too much debt.....prediction: "that's why the crisis of 2010 or 2011,
whenever it's going to hit, will be so much worse than we had in 2008".....
.....tomorrow morning at 8:15 EST he'll appear on MSNBC 'Morning Joe' to make official announcement whether or not he'll be running for US Senate in Connecticut.....
.....'Euro Pacific Precious Metals' is now taking resumes for precious metals sales reps (physical metals); experienced with selling bullion, 5-10 openings -- a new business which the company is
launching next month -- Westport, CT office.....wants for Europac to become one of the biggest precious metals dealers in the US, "in a very short time".....Caller 1: if homes are going to fall in price,
is it better to wait for lower prices to buy, or will the higher [expected] interest rates negate the benefit of buying lower?
Answer: "the best time to buy a house is when interest rates are as high as they're going to be"....."because that means the price is going to be as low as it's going to be.....then pay
cash".....Schiff is renting currently and plans to do this strategy himself....sounds like the caller cannot pay cash.....in that case, what good is a low principal portion of your mortgage payment if you offset it with a high interest
portion? it's a wash .....Schiff says houses are inversely priced to interest rates, "like bonds".....never heard that one before!.....any inverse home
price to interest rate relationship is certainly not so simple, or so strong.....it's definitely nowhere near a perfect inverse correlation [-1.0].....if it were, the interest rate you got on your mortgage wouldn't matter! -- then the asking price of a home
would always be adjusted to compensate for any interest rate changes, just as discounts or premiums on bonds appear to create the current effective yield.....obviously the home market doesn't work that way..... .....Schiff is assuming that home sellers will have to lower prices even further in an already very depressed market, should interest
rates rise further.....but a home seller doesn't care about interest rates in setting asking price, and does not necessarily need to lower the price further --
some sellers will just opt to not sell so cheap, reducing the home supply on the market, which supports prices.......I tend to think home buyers won't be scarce at all but will come out of the woodwork in increasing numbers the more that home prices
might fall from these reasonable current levels.....he says to ideally wait for interest rates to be very high and then buy your home for cash with your gold.....he believes when real
estate bottoms the dollar will also be very low [against gold].....prediction: house prices in real terms "have no chance of rising"....priced in "a barrel of oil or bushel of wheat or ounce of gold" or
anything except dollar denominated bonds, housing prices "will go way down"..... (caller:) what about capital gains on the gold?.....(redirected conversation and forgot to answer).....if we get
hyperinflation gold could go a lot higher than $5,000 per ounce.....Caller 2: Will silver outperform gold in the rest of 2009? Answer: it has so far, measuring from the lows this year.....I think silver will
outperform gold, but silver has more upside as well as more downside than gold.....thinks silver will be above $20 in 2010.....anything could happen in the short run though.....thinks precious metal mining
stocks could end up 10 to 100 times current values, depending on the level of inflation.....
.....prediction: based on what our politicians are doing, the worse case scenario of hyperinflation is "looking more and more likely every day"..... Caller 3: US stocks are up around 50% of the
way to their 2007 peak, measured from the March lows -- if they sell off do you think gold will still go up? Answer: thinks yes.....a couple weeks ago with the 200 point equities drop, gold actually rallied,
which he thought 'was significant' that there was not gold weakness as some predicted....."normally, gold is countercyclical to the stock market".....sees decoupling with foreign markets.....prediction:
thinks ultimately the dollar, US stocks and US bonds "will fall in tandem".....thinks if US stocks have a big selloff, foreign stocks will also fall but not as much.....thinks the rising dollar anomaly of
2008 was a one time event and there won't be a flight to US dollars again.....other currencies besides the dollar also will fall as other central banks have interest rates way too low and quantitative easing policies.....Caller 4:
question on price controls -- face masks very expensive in Kuala Lampur with the current outbreak.....(long question and answer).....Answer: price controls are bad.....they are governments' way to
try to denounce 'profiteering', but high profits are needed sometimes to encourage people to do risky things to get the products to markets in tough situations..... Caller 5: Owns gold, silver and
mining stocks but 'is my portfolio safe'? Answer: have a Europac broker take a look at your holdings, so call Europac.....Caller 6: What about Ron Paul's efforts to audit the Fed? Answer: I support
auditing the Fed.....Fed's objections are "laughable" as they are not independent -- they simply do the gov't's bidding.....
.....I don't think we need a global currency.....we have gold and that is it.....we want real money and
I don't trust governments to create non-gold money with any discipline.....
Sep 9, 2009 Host: Hemant Kathuria, branch manager for Euro Pacific Capital, Los Angeles
.....sitting in tonight for Peter Schiff who is on a plane now headed to Poland to speak to a group of economists.....demand for his speaking engagements is greater abroad than in the
US.....due to propaganda on CNBC, from Washington, etc.....they still believe in "pouring gasoline to put out the fire".....
.....last time Hemant hosted this show solo was 1 year ago.....at that time the gold mining stocks index (GDX) was at 35 and falling.....GDX is notoriously volatile and subject to
"violent, violent corrections".....
.....silver chart looks bullish now (Hemant's favorite metal -- monetary and industrial uses).....its 50 DMA line above 100 DMA which is above the 200 DMA.....GDX today at 45 which
is breaking through the resistance level of July......[silver at $16.34].....platinum consolidating ($1276) and moving higher.....palladium is at $290.....
.....Peter Schiff's US Senate run in CT looking "more and more likely".....over $1 million pledged now at schiffforsenate.com.....
.....Brad Cook, CEO of Endeavor Silver joins tonight on the phone.....[disclosure, Hemant owns Endeavor convertible bonds, and clients own large amounts].....
.....on Australia: Hemant likes Australia's economy: less population, more natural resources per capita, mining, ran budget surpluses for many years, enough resources to weather
the global debt problems.....Caller 4: Bought a condo for $285k at the peak which is now worth $200k. Married with 2 kids. Afraid value will continue to fall and also needs a bigger
place. Needs to have $80k cash to get out and rent like Peter recommends. Answer: For owner occupied you might qualify for a gov't program and get the bank to agree to a short
sale without too much damage to your credit......national real estate values correlated 94% to CPI from 1900 to 1995....then Greenspan doubled the money supply (1995 to 2006) and we got
3 standard deviations above the norm in real estate.....real estate prices have some natural floors, the replacement cost per square footage is one....as far as whether real estate will
fall further (prediction:) the answer is "unequivocally yes".....too much leverage still.....the savings rate has exploded.....Caller 5: Thinking about buying lumber futures -- what do you
think? Answer: Not sure about the lumber market, but contango in futures in general can make it tricky. That is, costs of insurance, storage, interest, etc. Think about the market
for lumber and what affects it - e.g. housing construction.....you're better off with precious metals.....gold and silver are vastly rarer than trees......Caller 6: How should I store my
emergency savings? Answer: Junk silver.....small coinage of silver or gold should be your emergency stash.....or Merk hard currency fund or Merk Asia currency fund also are fairly
liquid, but have a bit of volatility.....Chinese RMB is "semi-managed" and expected to float higher.....strong central banks, such as Switzerland, have bonds with negative yields under
about 3 years, so finding a vehicle for cash is problematic.....Caller 7: Is silver taxable? Answer: (Brad) Selling it at a profit would incur a capital gains tax.....also, caller is bullish on
Norway - they've had no quantitative easing. Answer: Norway is a 'best-kept secret'.....they have the highest per capita reserves on earth, Norwegian krone has stayed even since 2004.....oil
revenues enriching it without debt and spending.....aggregate balance sheet has improved yet currency hasn't strengthened [yet - making it inexpensive].....Caller 8: What do you think
about real estate in India, especially the mid-size towns? Answer: pollution in Delhi is very bad.....likes favorable demographics of young population there.....work ethic and many
bullish factors.....with so much gold and silver in India, Hemant feels they will become the richest country in the world..... also, will gold go up in terms of rupees? Answer: thinks
gold will rise against all currencies.....early in the gold bull market gold rose primarily in US dollars but the charts look strong for gold against a variety or currencies now.....
Sep 2, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....the markets seem to be getting more rational the last few days.....major market moves in 2008 were often 'head fakes' or irrational, because inexperienced money
managers are easily fooled and react to the past rather than envision the future, exaggerating these fakes.....they don't understand economics.....everything (many asset
classes) went down in 2008 except US dollars and Treasuries, and maybe the Japanese yen, but that was it.....in 2009, foreign stocks and commodities are outperforming while
the dollar weakens.....gold and silver surged this week and still look strong....HUI Index up over 9% today -- best day for gold mining stocks this year.....thinks that investors
are now waking up to inflation fears rather than deflation fears, so shunning now US dollars, US assets, and moving to gold and other currencies.....they're fleeing US assets
and this is showing up in FOREX.....there's a good argument that interest rates are headed higher because of the inflation the Fed is creating, so he expects bonds to head
lower.....
.....watched older Peter Stark interview on youtube (Congressman; on Ways and Means Committee) where he says that the national debt was not a problem (back when it
was around $4-5 trillion).....Stark said government borrowing is not a problem, but Schiff differentiates between corporate and gov't debt, the difference being that companies
can borrow profitably if the return on the investment exceeds the cost of the debt.....Schiff says that gov't does not invest but only spends, so its debt is never beneficial.....the video
is on Schiff's youtube channel "schiff report".....
.....donations for Senate run now around $950k, please contribute at schiffforsenate.com and let's get over $1 million
pledged.....his decision whether to run will be made soon.....if he doesn't run, contributions will all be refunded.....Caller 1: Can't convince his friends Social Security is a Ponzi scheme -- how can he convince them?
Answer: explain how Social Security is financed.....in a legitimate
investment, the returns are generated from investing the money.....Social Security takes in the taxes and spends them [channels them to recipients] rather than investing.....it can't work.....the government calls it "pay
as you go".....it's just like Bernie Madoff.....Treasury bonds held in the Trust Fund are not an asset because the gov't can't loan money to itself any more than you or I
could.....
.....will be doing a seminar in Philadelphia in a couple weeks and speaking there at a Campaign for Liberty event.....will be doing a seminar in Chicago with invitations
going out to clients soon.....Caller 2: What about Japan's debt to GDP ratio which is reportedly around 200%, the #2 highest below Zimbabwe [USA Debt/GDP expected to reach circa 100% after 2010 deficit]. Answer: GDP is calculated differently in different nations.....yes, Japan has a huge national debt, and it has suffered from it.....however, their government
borrows from its own citizens who have a high savings rate.....Americans don't save, so our debts are financed from abroad which is a huge difference.....the US is in "serious,
serious trouble" while Japan is not.....Caller 3: Regulators are trying to shut down some commodity ETF's, what's your take? Answer: talk to Euro Pacific brokers about the
specific ETF's or commodities; (800) 727-7922.....or, if interested in buying physical gold through the Perth Mint in Australia, call Euro Pacific at (800) 993-8350.....the Euro
Pacific Halter China Fund (EPHCX) is currently only available through Euro Pacific, but will be available on various platforms in the future.....Caller 4: Is invited to attend a town
hall meeting with Secretary Tim Geithner in attendance; what should he ask Geithner? Answer: "when will you resign?"....."why is he repeating the same mistakes of Hank
Paulson?".....thinks Geithner is probably just trying to help his friends at Goldman Sachs.....Geithner represents "stealing from the poor and giving to the rich".....Geithner has
Congress convinced that the future of our economy rests on huge bonuses at the big investment banks -- that the financial services firms need gov't help or the economy will
come crashing down.....prediction: "the reality is that the solution to our problems involves the bankrupty of a lot of these companies [big Wall Street financials]".....
.....prediction: "there is no way we can repay the [National] debt".....so I don't want to repay the debt, but instead negotiate it with Treasury debt holders and write down some of the
principal to a manageable level.....getting 25 cents on the dollar is better than being paid in worthless paper money.....prediction: the baby boomers will not get their Social Security in
retirement any more than Bernie Madoffs customers can get paid back - "they bought into a lie"....."Ponzi schemes don't work"..... Caller 5: Doesn't understand why foreign
central banks still buy US Treasuries - one article called "The Fed's Shell Game" said they're swapping US gov't agency debt for Treasuries? Answer: he read that article too - yes it
makes sense that foreigners to some degree are switching from Fannie, Freddie or other agency debt to Treasuries.....there is also a strong trend in their buying short
maturities....Schiff believes this is an exit strategy,so that foreign governments can take their cash soon upon maturity rather than having to liquidate long bonds in the
secondary market at huge losses.....
Aug 26, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....europac.net and youtube channel 'schiff report' have these 'Wall Street Unspun' shows archived as podcasts....has also noticed plenty of people repost these broadcasts on youtube.....this Friday he will appear on CNBC Reports at 8:00 eastern and CNN Special 'Your Money' on Saturday afternoon.....appearances are sometimes very short notice to him so check europac.net daily for latest news on his appearances.....Schiff's girlfriend's brother of 40 was tragically killed in a car accident this morning.....he didn't prepare much for today (though normally he does not anyway)....
.....big news is Bernanke's being reappointed as Fed chairman....his celebrity is entirely misplaced as he's making everything worse; he's just liquoring up the economy.....Schiff wrote "The Devil You Know" article today.....short term gain of the stimulus costs us much bigger long term pain.....
.....housing sales are up because of gov't tax credits.....FHA assisting buying with virtually no down payment.....sales figures up on low end homes, not higher end because of zero down gimmick.....economic indicators are not improving but just not deteriorating as quickly -- misguided optimism in markets.... we have to get some benefit from the artificial stimulus....most economists focused on whether consumers are back to spending -- but "we know that's not the solution - that's the problem".....we haven't learned anything from our mistakes and "we're not doing anything to get out of the hole and we're doing everything to make the hole bigger".....prediction: he's sure there is no real recovery here.....Wall Street is fooled by the data.....
.....Greenspan's housing bubble lasted for 4 or 5 years before it popped.....prediction: this green shoot bubble will pop....."I would be surprised if we get even 2 or 3 years of phony prosperity before the roof comes caving down and we have a much bigger disaster"......he's convinced this is no V shape.....hard times will remain "long after Barack Obama's term".....Caller 1: Rumors of a 'bank holiday' coming - what do you think? Answer: During the Great Depression there were bank holidays (temporary closings) when the banks didn't have enough funds.....there shouldn't be any need for bank holidays now because of deposit insurance....the gov't won't allow people to lose their deposits; i.e. bailouts.....
.....the FDIC insurance is actually a bad thing because it ruins the free market competition in banks and creates moral hazard.....FDIC insured banks do riskier things since the deposits are insured.....depositors aren't motivated to do due diligence since they have the insurance, so the free market doesn't police the banks' lending practices.....without FDIC insurance banks would compete with each other based on which bank takes the least risk, "and then you have a fundamentally sound banking system".....[Even without "sound money" bullion-backed currency, Peter??] Actually, the historical record strongly suggests that the opposite is true -- that the banks had quite risky practices before FDIC insurance began in 1933. From the Colonial period all the way through the early 20th century, one of the biggest, if not the biggest national domestic problem (which was debated in Congress almost continually for over a century) was the shaky private banking system. Rashes of bank failures or 'Panics' came around every decade or so, on average. Before the US had a single national currency, each private bank issued its own specie-backed currency or "notes" which frequently became worthless as often the banks took lending risks that went sour, or had unregulated, unscrupulous management.....
.....on Peter's likely senate bid.....some folks started a new moneybomb to happen some time around Sept. 8th (not sure the date).....Peter committed to them that if the total comes to $1.5 milliion he will definitely run.....$940k total so far at www.schiffforsenate.com. .....please contribute now.....contributions will be refunded if he does not run.....Linda McMahon expected to run (World Wrestling Federation fame).....the other 3 candidates running for Republican nomination in Connecticut are career politicians.....he thinks Linda cannot win but she could help him by drawing off votes from the political 'insider' candidates....
.....Caller 2: Had friends that were in mortgage lending a few years ago that saw firsthand the subprime debacle coming, and now he sees the same thing with friends he has in auto sales who tell him the 'Cash for Clunkers' program is the same way -- people with bad credit bringing in clunkers and these loans will go bad. Answer: Yes, people with clunkers have clunkers because they can't afford a newer car.....C for C program is enticing people without money to go deeper in debt.....prediction: in a year or so we will need a bailout for these people.....Schiff penned "Dough for Dumps" as a spoof on this.....
.....on inflation: caller has tried to warn others but meets the argument that 'there's always been inflation'.....Answer: "there hasn't always been inflation.....from 1790 to 1913, for 120 years, we had deflation.....the industrial revolution -- a period of falling prices.....we've had inflation with the Federal Reserve, but we haven't always had hyperinflation"......Caller 3: (Canadian) Cannot buy EPHCX Euro Pacific Halter China mutual fund in Canada.....Answer: the ony way currently to buy shares of EPHCX China stock fund is through Euro Pacific, but they are working on the regulatory hurdles to make it widely available.....also, Euro Pacific Capital is planning to open up 'Euro Pacific Canada', a new office in Toronto in 2010.....Canadians could then do business with Euro Pacific Capital through Euro Pacific Canada.....Caller 4: With your expectation of interest rates rising sharply in the future, what do you think of real estate as an investment -- will people be able to afford it?.....Answer: thinks Canadian real estate will hold up a lot better than in the US......real estate prices are a function of the affluence of people desiring property in that area.....prediction: with tough times coming in the US, real estate will lose a lot of value in real terms.....could nominally rise though
if we have hyperinflation.....in desperate times people have to eat and buy energy, but they don't have to pay their (same) rent -- could take on roommates or just wait until eviction.....demand for housing can thus really suffer.....landlords are limited to the housing market in their locality so if the
nation is in decline, you don't want to be in real estate.....once the collapse happens, then buy your real estate for pennies on the dollar.....only recommends buying real estate now if you can get the FHA tax credit and buy a home with nothing down.....in hyperinflation you then get the home for free.....if not you can always walk away.....Caller 5: Sold some stocks in March out of fear -- should she buy back in now or wait for another dip (W shape recession)?.....Answer: don't try to time the market.....forget about the zigs and zags.....when you know the final end game, just invest for that.....prediction: "I am 100% convinced that I'm right on how this is going to end up"....."I know the destination, I just don't know the route".....stay away from leverage (margin) and invest long term.....Marc Faber, Jim Rogers (and Schiff) all agree on the final outcome.....
question: what about cash in the meantime?.....for holding cash, Schiff likes the Japanese yen or the Chinese RMB.....you can hold your cash in Asian currencies through the Merk Asian Currency Fund (MEAFX) which is around 80% Chinese RMB.....you gain in this fund from any dollar decline against the yuan (RMB).....
Aug 19, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....youtube channel "schiffreport" has his videoblogs archived.....
.....heavily leaning toward running for Senate but not officially announcing run yet.....$893k in donations to date.....says 'thank you's for donations have not
been sent because the run is unsure.....contributions will be returned if he decides not to run.....sending thank you's would cost $9k, which he thought would
be a waste of contributor's money.....wants to spend the money wisely on the campaign.....Linda McMahon, wife of Vince McMahon and owners of the
WWF, is talking about running for Dodd's seat too, and spending $25 million on her campaign.....could be 5 or 6 running for Republican CT nomination
including her.....
.....market news: lots of volatility; mainland China stocks down about 20%; Hong Kong not as much -- maybe 5%; pullback in US market.....
.....dollar index at 78.5, near its lows and has given back all of its gains.....crude oil is up a few dollars today and commodities look strong.....dollar still looks
weak.....Warren Buffett wrote Op-ed in the New York Times (NYT) yesterday that warns of inflation and deficits, but hypocrtically praises the actions of the
gov't and Federal Reserve.....talks of pollution of 'excess dollar emissions' metaphor, (as carbon emissions).....Schiff says it's just reflating the bubble and a
"delusional state" (stimulus/deficits).....Bill Gross [manager of biggest bond fund in the world, at PIMCO] also wrote an article today saying inflation
is coming; yet he also supports bailouts and stimulus.....Peter says you can't both acknowledge inflation is coming from excess dollars while supporting all
the crazy spending.....contradicts.....
.....Schiff thinks the letdown from cutting all the stimulus wouldn't be as bad as people think.....cutting spending, Schiff admits, will cause more people to
lose jobs in certain sectors, but they'll probably "lose them anyway"....but in the long run they'll get a better job.....the biggest short term pain would be the
banking sector and Wall Street.....huge salaries and bonuses can suffer.....can't keep bailing out "the drug pushers" of cheap credit.....let the banks fail, let
cheap credit stop and consumers not borrow for what they can't afford.....in America today "nobody is prepared for bad times because they think if times get
bad they'll just go into debt".....
.....Mohamed El-Erian [also at PIMCO Funds] is admitting that the dollar must fall long term.....but he says "it's a good thing" that we should not be concerned
about since it will lose value slowly in an orderly way.....Schiff says that is nonsense.....you're going broke slowly then....."the only reason the dollar isn't
collapsing is that most people don't think it will lose value over time"....they think it will stabilize.....when there is "consensus" that the dollar must gradually
fall, then nobody will want them, especially with the meager yields.....
.....the Euro Pacific Halter China Fund (EPHCX) had a big move today because there was an error earlier in the week as most of the fund was in cash so people
buying during this last week will likely get a corrected confirmation soon with an adjustment to the share number from this correction.....a long term fund;
only $6 million of assets so far....may be a scary roller coaster ride in the short term....we decided to launch the fund around the lows of the Chinese
market, but it took this long to get through regulations and hurdles.....not to worry, thinks the main growth of China is ahead of us, not behind us, esp. when
they depeg from the dollar.....they are suffering a 'tax' burden exporting to America and when they are free of us they will really boom.....Peter has money in
the fund for the long term.....don't put money in this fund for just a year or two.....
.....Caller 1: What's the difference between gold bullion and collector gold coins, do you think the gov't will confiscate gold like in 1933, and do you
recommend trading in my numismatic coins to buy bullion? Answer: Schiff doesn't really know collectible numismatic coins and not particularly bullish or
bearish on them.....says bullion is a better inflation hedge than collectible coins.....reasoning is that a $10,000 1 ounce gold rare coin is not as good an
inflation hedge as 10 ounces of bullion coins for the same price.....if gold doubles your $10k won't double..... on the other hand, if gold falls
in half, your 10 bullion coins will fall in half, but the 1 rare coin might not fall at all -- it could easily even rise (see my Q&A page) .....says in a bad recession people might have to sell a lot of their collectibles and the selling pressure in a broke country could mean weak prices
realized.....Schiff would buy Chinese rare coins if he was thinking about rare coins (he's not).....Euro Pacific is contracting now to deal in bullion coins for
physicaly delivery -- coming soon.....Confiscation? who knows.....Caller 2: Concerned US gov't would seize our IRA's and force us into buying Treasuries,
like Argentina. Answer: he wouldn't put it past them, thinks confiscation is possible.....they already do it to people who renounce their US citizenship.....the
worse things get (bigger government) the more they will have to take from the citizens.....any thoughts on the Elliot wave theory? Answer: he respects the
proponents of Elliot wave.....believes that a crash could certainly happen in 2009-2010. Peter thinks that with all the inflation we won't see a 1930's type
stock slide of 90% at the trough because inflation will boost stock prices in nominal terms, but the real mover will more likely be the price of gold
exploding.....no way to fend off a crash in the dollar, he thinks.....Caller 3: Hopes Peter will consider getting on the Ed Morissey show (hotair.com
conservative blogger and show host). Answer: Schiff says he should send a request for him to appear through Euro Pacific, who does his
bookings.....Caller 4: Agrees hyperinflation is very likely -- if hyperinflation is a wage/price spiral, he can't imagine wages keeping up fast enough. Answer:
Schiff agrees in hyperinflation wages would not keep pace with other prices, causing big problems.....that's exactly what happens in any hyperinflation is
wages fail to keep up.....he thinks hyperinflation is "not the most likely scenario".....please contribute at www.schiffforsenate.com
Aug 12, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....senate (possible) candidacy going very well with donations.....moneybomb and schiffforsenate.com now up to $850k.....$50k is from Schiff himself.....Rob Simmons (top contender) boasted that he raised $745k in one quarter -- a record in CT.....Schiff beat that in under a month, 'without even being a candidate yet'.....that's obviously from my fans around the country.....lots of people have offered to volunteer.....at least 8000 people have donated and many have been very small donations who could potentially donate more.....people have called him and offered to host fundraisers.....expecting to announce run or not by Labor Day.....would like another $150k to reach $1 million by Labor Day for media splash on announcement.....if he decides not to run, contributions will be returned.....
.....Euro Pac launched a new mutual fund of Chinese stocks.....EPHCX, load fund, pays a "pretty good" dividend, later may be available through various brokerages.....fund helps diversification for small investors.....thinks China is one of the best long term opportunities.....might launch additional mutual funds in the future.....
news:.....Ben Bernanke assuring the country everything is fine, economy is improving, Fed actions are working, reassuring that inflation will be in check, that Fed doesn't intend to keep buying bonds.....all this is just talk.....prediction: "they have no intention of withdrawing any of the liquidity".....fools think that since the stock market is going up the economy is improving.....
.....Schiff on CNBC "Fast Money" earlier today.....everybody assumes things are getting better if the market is up.....they haven't figured out that the crash of 2008's foundation was laid a few years earlier when the Fed inflated a real estate bubble.....prediction: "who can even imagine what awaits us now -- what are the consequences that lie in store given the fact that the mistakes that are being made now are much bigger -- you're talking about an exponential increase in the size of the mistakes -- so I can only imagine what's in store for this economy 1 or 2 years down the line -- I don't think it's going to be 5 or 6 years to hit the fan like it was the last time around -- I think that this stimulus is going to buy a much smaller bounce than the Greenspan stimulus -- but's it's going to have a much bigger bust.....the enormity of the mistakes".....the only "change" Obama has brought is the size of the mistakes; much bigger under Obama than George Bush.....
.....if Bernanke was doing a good job he would be villified as Paul Volcker was at the time he raised interest rates.....even conservative Jack Kemp and several resolutions in Congress called for Volcker's resignation.....later Volcker was viewed as a hero but he had very few friends at the time.....
.....people saying we don't have the inflation problem like the 70's now are wrong....."yes we do, we're just lying about it -- we have phony numbers when it comes to the CPI and the PPI".....prediction:"prices are rising fast and they're going to keep moving up".....we'll have much worse inflation than the 70's but Bernanke won't do anything about it; no way he could raise interest rates after allowing government debt to grow so much.....free markets would have higher interest rates which would encourage savings.....
.....on health care: "the government caused the problem" of costs spiraling out of control; through subsidies, the tax code and involvement has short circuited the free market mechanisms that would normally keep a lid on medical costs.....
.....unnaturally low interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve.....in a society where nobody is saving and everybody is loaded up with debt, how can the interest rate be zero?.....
.....only reason Schiff wants to run for senate is "to try, just on the chance.....to put a stop to this before it's too late"....."they [Congress]don't understand that the recession is not the problem.....it's their bad policies that makes the recession necessary.....we need the recession to clean up the mess they made".....if you try to stimulate out, you get an inflationary depression and maybe hyperinflation.....
.....thinks his speaking skills might spark real change in the US Senate...."persuasive, personal characteristics".....Caller 1: (Chinese heritage, 1st gen American): Concerned with Chinese accounting practices and also their government statistics, "differences in perception of honesty" even dealing with his own Chinese acquaintances. Answer: Euro Pac doesn't just use the government numbers.....we do a lot of our own research on Chinese companies.....when we buy stocks in China we can't buy off the Shanghai exchange for clients so we buy them in Hong Kong, Singapore or the US.....in the new mutual fund we will be able to buy on the Shanghai exchange.....if you get under the hood of these companies, I think Chinese companies offer the best value out there.....right now Chinese stocks are at a much lower valuation than US stocks on fundamentals.....based on macroeconomic policy, freedom, demographics......if you had to bet on only one country, China is it.....
Question: Chinese GDP is counted as soon as stimulus checks are cut, unlike other countries..... Answer: I don't put reliance on any country's GDP numbers.....not a good measure.....look at production, raw materials being used, and products coming from China -- high savings, hard working people.....take a look around in Walmart, "what does it take to produce all that -- it's not an accident -- they are creating all these consumer goods and that's what it's all about....that's what makes standards of living go up is the ability to produce consumer goods.....that's it, that explains everything".....even though it's a communist country, there is less regulation and gov't constraints.....
Caller 2: Seems whenever there is a stock market selloff people run to the US dollar; what will break the pattern of people during selloffs going into dollars? Answer: At some point that will change.....people will realize that the risk is the US dollar.....stocks still represent a real asset....."if you were invested in Zimbabwe, there were some Zimbabwe stocks that did really well.....the Zimbabwe dollar went to zero, but there were some companies in Zimbabwe that did well because they represent real assets.....
.....some commentators actually like the dollar going down and say it's good for America....."when the dollar goes down, every American gets poorer"....if your US stock goes from $100 to $110 a share, but the dollar loses 10% of its value, you are no better off" in purchasing power.....prediction: "it is impossible for the economy to be recovering"...."how can an alcoholic recover if he keeps drinking".....Caller 3: Concerned Canada's central bank might follow the US Fed and inflate. Since 80% of Canadian trade is to the US he's worried about the CAN$ rising against the USD$. Answer: Some central banks around the world are foolish about debasing their own currencies to help their exports.....it's a myth and foolish -- hurts their own citizens.....
.....Euro Pac or an affiliate by end of September hopes to be selling gold and silver bullion coins for physical delivery.....premiums will be small; no more than 5-6% above spot.....
Caller 4: How will Chinese gain purchasing power, as you predict? Answer: China can unpeg RMB from dollar.....also Chinese gov't can print more RMB.....because the country is so productive, it would not be very inflationary.....Caller 5: On the Treasury 5 and 7 year auctions of a couple weeks ago.....some detective work was done and it was discovered the Fed bought back a ton of those bonds from the primary dealers within a week of the auction. Answer: I'm sure that foreign central banks and private individuals are all backing off from buying Treasuries.....it's gotta be the Fed buying the bonds somehow.....when Bernanke says the Fed is not buying bonds he's lying....Bernanke is never right, he's always wrong.....I challenge anybody to find anything Bernanke has ever said [as a forecast?] that has ever come true.....
Aug 5, 2009 Cohosts: Peter Schiff (second half), Neeraj Chaudhary, investment consultant at Euro Pacific, LA branch, & Steve Echeverria, also consultant at Euro Pacific
.....big news is Peter and Andrew Schiff are in Kentucky speaking to Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul, about a potential senate run in KY for Rand Paul.....more fiscal conservatism in
US Senate if elected.....Peter's exploratory committee going great.....fundraising thus far.....cash for clunkers program considered a success by many and Congress deliberating expanding it....Neeraj strongly opposed!.....
.....Steve: market notes -- Euro Pacific Halter China Fund is a brand new fund of stocks in China offered thru Euro Pacific; EPHCX ticker; benchmarked on MSCI China Index;
underweighted in financials, resource overweighted, not ADR's, Hong Kong stocks overlooked by other funds, stocks traded on Shanghai exchange.....far better value than SP500 by PE, dividends, etc......
.....Neeraj: DJIA, US stocks have only recovered losses of last year -- breakeven; but many Asian markets have soared compared to a year ago.....Shanghai up 90%, Hong
Kong up 75%, Nikkei up 30%, Singapore up 50%.....but valuations are still low.....
.....Steve: Walmart "considering the yen to be a strong investment" by issuing 1.1 bn bonds in Japanese yen, following trend of Westpac(AUS) and Barclays issuing yen bonds.....(Walmart)
"one of the largest US companies potentially looking overseas because of their concerns about the dollar".....this analysis is exactly backwards! -- a
corporation would naturally prefer to borrow money in a currency that will suffer high inflation before the debt comes due.....that is why Schiff speaks of debtors basically
getting off scot free once the dollar has plunged.....if Walmart thought the dollar would suffer worse inflation compared to other currencies, then they would benefit from issuing their debt in dollars, not yen.....issuing debt in yen is in no way an "investment" in the yen; -- (though the issue's proceeds could be used to take a position in the yen, they are not saying that is the case)
.....IPO's and growth raging overseas; can't remember last IPO in the US.....
Caller 1: What is so great about gold? Answer, Steve:.....you don't make money in gold, it just preserves wealth, so its great in an inflationary environment.....money supply
increasing at 17% per year while gold supply increasing at 1.5% a year.....Caller 2: Graphic designer suffering in this economy -- afraid to sell his stocks at a loss, wondering about a rebound in US stocks?.....Answer: nominally it will probably go
higher but inflation will surpass it so you lose anyway.....Caller 3: Bearish on economy; wondering what to invest in - he likes gold and silver bars. Wonders about COMEX naked short selling of metals; whether foreign metals
markets might be less manipulated or have better auditing of positions (vaults) than US Comex.....(not answered directly)...Goldman Sachs been "living off the public trough" for years.....Caller 4:
Afraid to invest more in markets since they've risen so much. Answer: question is not how much it has risen, but whether it is currently undervalued. Question 2: Doesn't
pegged RMB prevent the rise of the Chinese consumer? Answer: RMB since 2005 has risen a bit against the dollar in a managed way by the Chinese gov't. We think it's
temporary that RMB is pegged, so look at it as a buying opportunity. Even if the peg stays, Chinese stocks are a great investment.....
.....foreign central banks now buying shorter term T-bills; Peter thinks it's because
they can get out easier by letting them mature.....Neeraj: Fed program to buy treasuries expires next month -- speculation now that extending program could spark
hyperinflation.....Peter: hyperinflation could be a few years off - first we'll get higher inflation -- whenever I talk "hyperinflation", I'm talking Zimbabwe & Weimar Republic (Germany) -
I'm not talking 1970's style inflation; prediction: "we're going to have inflation that's a lot worse than the 1970's, even under the best scenario.....we will turn it into
hyperinflation if we don't change policies".....180 degrees.....Congress always does the opposite of what it should.....
.....the dollar is simply resuming its downtrend that was disrupted by the financial crisis.....we are now witnessing decoupling.....Asian economies are now recovering - their
bad US loans are a smaller wound to them in their robust economies.....the US has much deeper problems than holding some bad loans.....US gov't is doing everything it can possibly do prop up a phony economy and reflate the bubble.....
.....almost 3000 contributors now at schiffforsenate.com .....probably more individual donors than his
opponents.....it is possible to get the US out of this mess.....Germany and Japan did it after WWII.....
(Peter exits) Caller 5: Hears from Jason Hommel/David Morgan silver analysts that
above ground supply of silver is actually less than gold -- what about silver investing now? Steve: I think Jason Hommel is a little out there.....but in a panic, yeah silver
could be a secondary safe haven currency.....consider the physical metal and silver mining stocks....we did a private placement for Endeavor..... Caller 6: Gold halted price
rise when Bernanke said he would not monetize the debt. Question, isn't printing money with no obligation different from the government issuing new debt, as far as inflation?
Neeraj: Answer: it's true that the Fed doesn't literally print money in its basement but does it with a few keystrokes, so it creates an insidious tax in the form of inflation.
(didn't really answer the question - if you want an answer email me and I'll post it on my Q&A page).....
July 29, 2009
Host: Peter Schiff
.....Crash Proof 2.0 will be released this September.....he was on Fox Strategy internet video show today with his brother Andrew, posted on youtube.....another video with Schiff and Dodd juxtaposed on youtube, for campaign.....2500 contributions so far at schiffforsenate.com.....moneybomb schiffathon coming up soon, details later.....expects to announce his candidacy or not shortly after that.....
.....correction in Chinese stocks yesterday after 14 or so days of straight gains.....says he predicted big up year for foreign stock markets last year, and he was right.....still bullish on foreign stocks despite big run up this year....would not take profits as there may be no dip to buy again.....emerging market index up 80% on the year.....don't worry as the lows before were so ridiculous based on fundamentals.....euro pac more into developed markets--not much in emerging markets.....now emerging markets relatively pricier than developed markets, though still cheaper absolutely....doesn't expect cash to repeat its banner year of 2008.....2009 has been one of the worst years in history for US Treasuries and he expects that trend to continue.....thinks its deceptive still as earnings estimates for emerging are too low, and estimates in US market too high.....big picture is still "Inflation/Money creation".....economic data from around the world shows marked improvement.....Chinese met in Washington with Geithner and H. Clinton lying to them about controlling the deficit....cannot tell them the truth, "you're screwed; you're going to lose all your money; we're never going to rein in the deficit; that's the truth"...."How can we possibly rein in the deficit?..... spending out of control, adding more programs, adding nationalized healthcare.....we're just trying to get Japanese, Chinese and Saudis to finance it....worse for us if they do finance it.....federal stimulus policies are opposite what we tell the Chinese; that Americans will save more.....actually feds trying to get more Americans spending, not saving.....Chinese should let yuan rise against dollar and free their economy and stop buying US treasuries.....that would buoy the yuan and Chinese would gain wealth, which they then could spend for themselves.....the Chinese gov't. undermines the yuan and suppresses purchasing power of the Chinese people by buying US treasuries.....ultimately Chinese will consume their own goods rather than us.....
.....Schiff video blog about article from Stanford economist saying Chinese have no choice but to buy Treasuries because the low yuan depends on it....Schiff says he is stupid as they don't need a low yuan once they consume their own stuff and don't rely on exports.....higher yuan is not bad for China, but it's terrible for us because we are then "stuck with our worthless paper, no products to buy, and nobody to finance our deficits".....economists at prestigious universities are "so completely and utterly clueless" on basic economics.....
.....health care bill in senate looked like it would die in Senate.....so bad a bill that even democrats were going to vote it down.....watered down version might be passed.....admits health care is a bad system with "out of control costs" and needs reforms, but not Obama's.....problem is gov't intervention screwed up health care and free market is stymied.....
.....today revealed that Chris Dodd got sweet heart mortgage deal though he says he didn't know....."how could he not know?" as chair of senate banking committee.....his rate way below market, no points, and he can alter his mortgage terms at will.....
.....railed on Keynes "polluting the minds of young people".....
Caller 1: Inflation vs. deflation debate: Hasn't there been more credit destroyed than money printed, erasing any inflationary pressure?..... Answer: "there's been a lot of destruction no question about it but there's also been a lot of new money created. what you have to realize is that when loans go bad, there are consequences.....because money was loaned out (when credit is extended, money is created) but the idea is that new money is supposed to lead to new production, new goods are supposed to be produced so that there isn't an inflationary effect.....but when you create this new money and you don't create new production the new money has no purchasing power because nothing was created, so as these loans go bad, purchasing power really is being destroyed so prices are going to have to go up anyway.
if it was true that the Federal Reserve could just print money when loans go bad without inflationary effects we could have unlimited credit....banks could lend money to anyone for any hare-brained project and when loans go bad the Fed could just print money to make up for it…..it doesn’t work that way, there are consequences when loans go bad…..prices are going to rise and the only reason they’re not rising now is that China and Japan are still propping up the dollar and “keeping the money off the market and warehousing it in our treasuries”…..that’s going to stop…..
…..we originally benefitted from the crisis in the global flight to safety (US dollars)…..caller asked about talking heads being ignorant…..Schiff says even economists are clueless, such as Paul Krugman who has a Nobel prize in economics…..
Caller 2: (College student) what should I do debt-wise to pay for school? Answer: you’ll probably get the debt erased by inflation…..get marketable skills…..learn Mandarin, don’t study liberal arts but engineering, computers, minor in a language…..(rambling)…..if I get elected, it will be for one term as I don’t want to be a politician, I just want to clean up the economic mess and teach Congress about economics…..
Caller 3: Do you have plans to translate crashproof into Chinese? Answer: It already is translated in Chinese and has sold well in China…..caller asked about near term stock market; Chinese friends talking about more crises to come in Chinese stock market…..Answer: Schiff makes no attempt to ‘time’ the market or predict it short term…..in the long run stocks are better to own than bonds or cash…..because of U.S. severe problems, Schiff wants stocks overseas…..dividends now attractive too because interest rates so paltry…..in the short run Chinese stocks could drop 10% easily or dollar rise…..anything can happen short term…..caller asked if financial crisis is over…..Answer: no it’s not over, but govt is bailing everything out so we know we won’t have systemic failures, however bailouts really make it worse later…..
Caller 4: Article last week in the Economist,”What Went Wrong with Economics?”…..mentioned Bernanke, Larry Sommers, Mervyn King in Britain; your thoughts on economics/economists?.....Answer: yeah, noticed that also British economists wrote a letter of apology to the Queen…..actually, it’s not economics that got it wrong; it’s Keynesian economics that got it wrong and could never get it right…..we got it right…..Bernanke doesn’t know economics…..compared to witch doctors…..”that’s the problem, they’re phony”…..Austrian school is getting more popular now as Keynesian school fails…..
Caller 5: Business owner wonders about taxes in 2010 trying to plan ahead….. Answer: much uncertainty as nobody knows how high taxes will go…..gov’t borrowing so much is crowding out other borrowers…..taxes discourage investment and yes, people are wondering how high…..regulations and taxes keep getting worse and jobs and investment are going overseas…..
Caller 6: Do you think the central banks and large banks like Goldman are manipulating the gold price by selling large amounts…..Answer: probably they are, but Schiff doesn’t care as that means he can buy more cheap at $950…..”I think the next big move in the price of gold is up.”
July 22, 2009
Host: Peter Schiff (he did not host on July 15 or July 8)
.....schiffforsenate.com is now up and running as exploratory vehicle to gauge U.S. senate run support (R-CT, against Chris Dodd).....encouraged contributions at site.....said a run is not sure, but he will decide based on contribution level over coming weeks.....has been told it would take $20 mil to run against Dodd..........
Railed on Obamacare, medicare and VA care..........
Bernanke's OpEd this week in WSJ (exit strategy): survey of money managers result was Bernanke was voted best central banker worldwide in handling financial crisis--Schiff view is opposite: he is "incompetent or lying".....same mistakes as Greenspan but bigger.....consequences to come will be horrific--collapse of the dollar.....even this massive stimulus will not create that big a temporary boost as the economy is so fundamentally weak..... Americans are "broke" and "they have no home equity".....Bernanke exit strategy of withdrawing liquidity won't work..........
Caller 1: about rereleasing Schiff's father's book "How an Economy Grows and Why it Doesn't" first published in the 1970's. Answer: Schiff is working on the republication.....Caller 2: Asked opinion of palladium and platinum. Schiff's answer: bullish, but not as much as monetary metals such as silver and gold.....as dollar collapses people will rush to gold and silver as money.....expects dollar to fall fast after it tests 2008 lows around index level of 71-72.....Caller 3: Why does Peter expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to equal an ounce of gold? Answer: the Dow's low in 1980 and in 1930's was at the one ounce level.....says we are in worse shape now than those 2 periods....reiterated gold is now underpriced [$950/oz.]
"I know that there is no recovery anywhere in sight. It's just not going to happen...and the more the government tries to stimulate the economy, the worse they are going to make it."....predicts gov't revenues will keep falling and next year's deficit not 2 trillion, but more like 3 trillion.....Caller 4: Bought house 9 mos. ago--current value is the same--should he sell on expectations of falling values?
Answer: Schiff asked how much cash he could walk away with.....advised to stand fast due to hassle of selling....."I don't think that real estate is a good investment in this country and I don't think it will be a good investment for a long time.".....expects home values to fall more but inflation and higher interest rates will make being a debtor now attractive for the future.....says he expects inflation to affect housing less than other things as there will be oversupply of housing relative to demand as we'll be in dire economic straits for a long time....."real estate will have to come down in value." Caller 5: Asked opinion of Ron Paul's bill to audit the Fed. Answer: In favor.....Fed needs to be accountable and transparent since it acts like a gov't agency with hand in glove relationship to Treasury.....
"I know for a fact that the economy is going to keep getting worse."
Caller 6: (is invested heavily with Europac) How can Peter be a senator and run Europac at the same time? Answer: he has analysts doing the work.....he'll be thinking same macroeconomic strategy in both jobs.....if he wins the senate, he has to trust his employees to run Europac. Caller 7: Opinion of Canadian Trusts and currencies? Answer: "The most important thing for Americans to do is to get out of the dollar."
July 15, 2009 Cohosts: Neeraj Chaudhary, investment consultant with Euro Pacific Capital, Los Angeles and Hemant Kathuria, branch manager and Peter's old college roommate
.....big news is Peter's exploratory committee to take a serious look at the senate run.....Obama is Bush on steroids--deficits 10-15% of GDP--uncharted waters.....sovereign wealth funds worldwide are now realizing that the trillions of USD they hold are worthless, "basically monopoly money"....."we are heading over a cliff economically".....plugged www.schiffforsenate.com.....firm and campaign are separate entities, not commingled.....dollar is in "classic penant formation to the downside" and looks header lower as we speak.....gold and gold stocks are doing exactly what we expect seasonally ('sell in May and go away')--the markets doing as they seasonally tend to -- a pull back in summer, esp. gold.....(the markets pulling back? -- S&P 500 is up 6.2% since May 1~).....gold will push higher to $1500--"just a matter of time".....likes convertible bonds of Newmont and gold miners.....buy gold on dips.....call us and we'll buy for you.....recommends Hong Kong and Singapore markets for growth as well as some European countries which are growing GDP and capital reserves--Norway, Finland.....
(Neeraj)--this unprecedented money growth must bring inflation, don't be fooled by deflation in home values or other assets.....Treasury auctions have gone well so far, but the Treasury plans an unprecedented level of new issues through September.....any lack of bidders could unwind markets.....last fall's crisis was private sector debt unwinding.....soon could be the public sector (Treasuries) and government in crisis.....
(Hemant).....$3.5 trillion was needed to fight WWII (inflation adjusted).....so far we've created 3 times that much money.....China stockpiling gold and non-money assets and secretly dumping dollars.....
Caller 1: Crash Proof refers to "flipping burgers" as typical service sector jobs while "Little Book of Bull Moves..." talks instead of professional services--clarify why the difference if there is any. Answer: Under Bush was the weakest post recession recovery ever in terms of jobs....jobs created were primarily gov't. sector--one of the most inefficient and non-productive sectors.....burger flipping jobs were also created, not manufacturing that actually creates value.....
(Neeraj)--"reaching the death knell" of manufacturing in the US because of high taxes and high regulations and other "structural issues in the economy".....basic manufacturing is the lifeblood of a good economy.....Obama "colossally misinformed" in saying credit is the lifeblood on the economy.....not credit--savings and production are the lifeblood....."consumer credit I think is very harmful to the consumer and to the economy as a whole."
Caller 2: Fed of New York has biggest stockpile of gold in the world according to Forbes--by moving to a gold standard, aren't we just moving from one form of control to another? If a central bank controls gold backed money, what's the difference? Answer: (Neeraj) The Fed since its creation in 1913 is wholly the cause of all inflation in the US and thus has destroyed 98% of the dollar's purchasing power since then.....Fed has been worst culprit in destroying the U.S. economy.....monetary growth in the US has been well into double digits in many years while economic growth much lower around 3%.....Fed must be audited (H.R. 1207).....
Caller 3: Perth mint reliability questionable if it's not filling orders? Answer: That was last year during the crisis when demand was so large that they had to make large bars only, so for several weeks they backordered the smaller coins.....Perth operating for over 100 hundred years and can be trusted.....also it's wise to diversify your gold holdings.....don't overlook gold mining stocks, which are leveraged.....
Caller 4: Would you recommend switching Perth mint unallocated gold to allocated at any point? Answer: No, with their reputation and Lloyd's of London insurance.....only if you want to take possession.....if you want you can pack your own box and send it to Perth.....
Caller 5: Brazilian caller wonders about BRIC (growth) countries (Brazil Russia India China) Answer: recommended as GDP growth plays.....volatility will continue.....AAA Brazilian bonds recommended for exposure to Brazilian currency.....within China its probably best to play through the Hong Kong exchange.....Euro Pac new mutual fund of Chinese stocks coming out......
Caller 6: (in Japan) What kind of tax structure do you recommend? (income tax, capital gains, consumption, etc.) Answer: income tax discourages productivity (he feels like lying on the beach rather than spending extra hours at the office).....really we must curb gov't spending and then taxes don't loom so large.....double taxation of dividends makes no sense when interest is deductible.....
July 8, 2009
Host: Andrew Schiff, brother of Peter and communications director at Euro Pacific; joined by Mike Finger, communications specialist at NY office
.....sitting in for Peter who is on his way to Las Vegas for Freedom Fest.....doing serious anaysis now for potential senate bid for Peter.....schiffforsenate.com just went live today and prior site (unofficial third party) is now down.....donations all will be refunded if Peter decides not to run.....need $ soon to show support to get attention of Republican party for nomination.....
China just made statement about settling int'l trade in yuan rather than dollars.....Andrew thinks China is just trying to sow confusion with conflicting statements....."it is clear that they want the yuan to have a bigger place in the world economy"....."you know the RMB is not going to go down, you know it's going to go up".....you've gotta look favorably on stocks in RMB.....likely to become a reserve currency.....thinks China has very long term patient strategy that will strengthen RMB.....
G8 summit today in Italy.....US and Britain pushing for more stimuli as new IMF growth figures unimpressive.....Germany instead being responsible and talking reducing deficits.....BRIC summit in Russia last month echoed in Russia's sentiments to not add stimulus.....Canada and France are moderate on stimulus topic.....Ron Paul's amendment to audit the Fed (HR 1207) got 250 votes in the House.....better than Ron Paul "would have dreamed"--tougher time getting through the Senate though.....
Peter was keynote speaker at Hartford, CT 'tea party'.....
GAO report today.....stimulus money to states is being spent faster than expected.....90% of money going to education and health care.....the vast bulk of the money is going to salaries--to keep from having to downsize or fire people.....Andrew says this money is not helping and just supporting business as usual.....no tangible infrastructure built or real change.....
health care big in news....."the whole idea that gov't can lower costs is ludicrous".....compares to mass transit, Amtrak and the post office.....US health care system "overcares" by expensive unnecessary procedures.....
.....drew parallel to libertarian movement…..panic of 1893---Bourbon democrats.....humble foreign policy, small gov’t and gold standard…..Grover Cleveland…..opposing movement of railroads, farmers and debtors pushed for ‘free silver’ -- inflation…..free silver was enacted and excess money printed, causing panic of 1893…..same thing today with Bernanke…..in history, ”whenever you see a crash, look for the bubble and whenever you see a bubble, look for the preceding inflation”…..
…..crony capitalism with silver mining and railroad interests those days aligned themselves with populist movement (farmers in debt)…..panics in those days only lasted a couple years (before the Fed and stimulus)…..Caller 1: Japanese bond smugglers caught on border of Switzerland/Italy with $150 bn Treasuries? Answer: Andrew phoned Bloomberg bureau in Milan…..bonds were probably fakes…..actually $30 bn, dated 1930’s which would have been several years of US deficits then…..made no sense…..Is China still buying Treasuries and how about gold?.....Answer: yes, China is increasing gold reserves…..”foreign central banks” buying at Treasury auctions has so far reported to be as strong as ever…..
something like 65%.....”there is no viable alternative to gold” ultimately for a currency…..”gold is the only thing throughout history that’s proved to ultimately preserve your wealth” (the only thing? – no! real estate, stocks, art, commodities, etc.) …..Caller 2: Why does Peter cite technical analysis patterns if he is a fundamentals guy? Answer: Andrew, “I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.”…..technical analysis can be useful since markets are not rational…..caller: that’s at odds with Austrian economics…..no, as daily volume is a tiny amount of outstanding shares it can matter…..Caller 3: HR 1207 for auditing the Fed would affect the economy how? .....Answer: Andrew, “I don’t know”…..can Congress actually discipline the Fed, practically speaking?.....dunno…..we believe the debts are so great anyway…..doesn’t believe Congress has the will to protect the dollar’s value…..
Caller 4: Regarding foreigners buying treasuries, WSJ Thursday, June 25 page 2 business section by Min Zeng…..said Treasury dept. has changed reporting of indirect bidders…..Andrew, said saw that news and is going to look into what exactly that change means…..
July 1, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....defended from Dennis Gartman criticisms….....said Cramer's calling a bottom in real estate housing prices now and recommending financial stocks is "probably the most foolish thing you could do with your money."….....Cramer says banks are holding written down foreclosures now and will profit as real estate market strengthens….....Schiff said banks are "pretending there is no huge loss by warehousing all this real estate that under normal circumstances they would have sold if they could."….....Banks foreclosures held is a "huge pent up supply" that when they try to sell all that real estate "the market will plunge." ....."I am confident the real estate market will not bottom out until all these banks have liquidated all their property portfolios."....."The lion's share of this economic downturn is in front of us, not behind us."....."higher interest rates, tighter credit, more unemployment and inflation".....energy and food prices "among the first to rise"....."foreclosures will go through the roof"….....
dollar index could get to 70 quickly if it starts to weaken below 80….....sees bearish short term chart for dollar whether US stocks rise or fall short term….....Caller 1: asked if federal government could sell its assets to save the dollar. Answer: wouldn't be enough to save the dollar….....mentioned SAT scores, Bernanke: 1790 Schiff: 1150 Said Bernanke is smart, so "he's a liar."....."[US gov't]....runs their finances in an identical way to the way Ponzi and Bernie Madoff ran theirs."....."[Bernanke] got everything wrong...everything he said was wrong.....Caller asked about ‘'deflation is coming’' argument. Answer: prices will come down (deflation), but the dollar will fall even faster....."relative to dollars, prices will go up" "no question in my mind" deflation is coming if you are paying in gold….....(this equals 100% prediction that gold price will rise from currently $930/oz.)....."all the deflationary busts of the past happened to countries that were on a gold standard.....if you look at all the countries that were not on a gold standard that had a big deflation when the government tried to fight it off, it was followed by hyperinflation."….....
Challenged anybody to find a clip of Bernanke being right on anything…....."silver is real -- it's not going to go much lower".....
"very bullish on agricultural commodities"--among most upside in inflationary environment…....."people gotta eat"
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June 24, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....discussed meeting Nouriel Roubini for the first time.....favorable meeting and said "long term we're on the same page" though Roubini publicly supports stimuli/bailouts (not privately)….. complained about news media failing to credit him as predictor of the doom and favoring ‘after the fact’ pundits and authors….. dollar looks vulnerable technically…..foreign central banks were 63% of buying volume at today's 5 year Treasury auction and even more with other foreign institutions-- "we are going to default..." either honestly (not paying) or dishonestly (printing money)…..economic recovery everybody thinks is coming isn't -- Fed said interest rates might rise because foreign purchasers of treasuries "create inflation abroad"….. "Fed has no exit strategy" i.e. no sopping up liquidity…..Obama's nationalizing health care being spun….. gov't health insurance will not be profitable-- losses for taxpayers…. answered caller by explaining that math in economics only works in microeconomics….. called macroeconomics all "Keynesian" and "nonsense"….. macro a "phony science"….. he was able to make his predictions with no math at all…..Keynesianism is "quackery"….. anybody who sold their home in 2007 due to crash proof is way better off than those who still own….. [around 2nd to last caller at end of show] …..says falling prices are good; deflation is good; money needs to be scarce; gold ideal money; all money does is eliminate need to barter; in theory paper money could work but politicians always print too much paper; announced Crash Proof 2.0 out in Sept. available for pre-order on Amazon now; another book is coming out later that he's working on now
June 17, 2009 Host: John Downes, collaborator on 'Crash Proof'
.....(for the time being I'll skip this one and focus on shows hosted by Schiff).....
June 10, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....Schiff was on 'the Daily Show' with Jon Stewart yesterday.....studio audience was a new experience....."credit not lifeblood of economy (Obama)--it's a cancer"....."massive inflation will wipe out the savings of average Americans and destroy the value of their wages".....his take on the news -- Big story is bond market taking big fall....."Bond bubble has burst." -- "Once we break through resistance there is no stopping it.".....Mortgage rates jumped about 1% in a couple weeks.....
Predicts oil at $100 bbl by end of year if not end of summer.....High gasoline prices hit much harder now with people out of jobs and retirement accounts depleted.....Predicts dollar falling through 70 index "before long".....Recession will get worse, plus we'll be getting high inflation and high interest rates.....Citi and Bank of America will never be able to return TARP money.....Banks that are returning it will need it back -- toxic assets still there.....Bailouts have been biased or selective.....Chrysler creditors got screwed while AIG, Citi creditors got government bailouts….Foreign investors are needed now to rebuild, but they won't want to lend to us without the rule of contract law…..there is no recovery coming for this recession, unlike other recessions.....'it's just going to keep getting worse'.....
.....Dollar is weak against most currencies and chart's trending down.....Marc Faber now calling for 100% chance of hyperinflation.....Art Laffer (WSJ op-ed piece) calling for high inflation that makes the 70's look tame....."Inflation transfers wealth from debtors to creditors.".....backwards, he must have meant the opposite.....US Dollar reserve currency status has been a double edged sword as it has given us more rope to hang ourselves with loose credit.....technical and fundamentals are screaming now for continued surge in oil, falling dollar, and "relentless" bond selloff (Treasuries).....recommends being fully invested rather than having money sidelined (difference between Crash Proof and Crash Proof 2.0).....expects trends to accelerate rather than reverse....."There is no respect for the law, the Constitution or private property".....extremely bullish on China.....
June 3, 2009 Cohosts: Andrew Schiff and John Downes - broker and Asst. Manager of LA office; (Peter is in Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates to speak at symposium; sharing stage
there with Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley - Asia; Roach was considered most bearish analyst/economist on Wall Street before Peter)
.....Darien, CT Euro Pacific office moving to Wesport, CT to larger space.....Peter will be on Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" June 9.....Jim Cramer was on the show 2 months ago
and got skewered for completely missing the financial meltdown.....Time magazine article on Peter might have encouraged Stewart to call them.....actually in last 4-5 months
Peter is getting much less media time, though he was right.....Andrew thinks it because the media wanted him to appear in order to bash George Bush, but not now to bash
Obama.....CNBC and Glenn Beck show appearances coming up....."heavily engaged" in considered Senate run for Peter now; will announce within weeks.....Peter talking about
now being a great time for Libertarians to gain influence with a "rudderless" Republican party.....Libertarians have never won yet a statewide race, so as a practical matter need to
run as Republicans.....
Obama in Saudia Arabia, Geithner returning from China telling China "everything is fine, we'll pay you back" (Treasury debt).....statement was laughed at by students at Peking
University.....Andrew: prediction: "it's clear we can't raise it from tax revenues".....it's clear we'll monetize the debt and print money.....we can't expect China to "compound their
error" forever and continue to buy US Treasuries....."to expect it to go on forever is ludicrous".....the notion China has no choice but to continue to buy our debt is
"ridiculous"....."terrible decision" for China to keep buying.....
.....Geithner prediction: that the recession will be over by the end of 2009.....Andrew: "by putting in trillions and
trillions of dollars of printed money, you know, that's going to make things look good, at least in the short run".....discussed California's deficit ailments and their
response: heavy budget cuts.....said Congress needs to close the deficit with similar cuts, but they don't.....if foreigners cut us off by stopping buying our debt, they would have
to.....prediction: price of oil will rise.....
.....criticized Michael Moore's theory of the government fixing GM (General Motors).....GMAC back in business, but with a
government backing now.....basically GMAC bonds' are US treasuries with higher interest.....grossly unfair to GM's competitors that Uncle Sam favors one auto company with
loan guarantees.....unconstitutional and defies free market principles.....
.....FHA program: first time home buyers now can get an $8000 tax credit.....'first time home buyer'
defined as someone who hasn't bought a home in 3 years (ludicrous).....the tax credit can be gotten quickly, so people can actually use the credit for the down payment(!) since
FHA only requires 3% down.....
Global picture: "the world is not following the US down the drain".....world markets up.....small positive GDP growth in Australia just came
out.....forecasts for Chinese growth 2009 are up.....more cooperation amongst other nations without the US....."increased trade settlement outside the dollar".....China overtook
US as Brazil's #1 trading partner.....Brazil sometimes issuing debt in commodity payment (oil).....
.....there is no consumer credit in China; expects that to change in the
future.....General Motors only good news was sales up in China.....sold Hummer brand to Chinese.....
(lengthy discussion of Chinese stocks still being undervalued after
market rising 50%.....still is 59% below the peak).....they don't advise waiting for a pullback....if you do wait for a pullback "do not sit in US dollars".....prediction, John: the dollar
is in "terminal decline".....Caller 1: Caller owns real estate; considered selling properties with 'seller financing'. He figures he can get 8% interest. What would
be the hyperinflation effect on financing this way? Andrew: (misunderstood 'seller financing' and suggested he put the proceeds in foreign stocks with income) John: clarified the question and
asked how much down payment he will be receiving --- John: why would you want to receive very little down now and finance for future payments when the future payments will be near
worthless?....."we are certainly on the road to hyperinflation; whether we get there or not, anything can happen, but we're on that path".....Caller 2: What is a currency bubble,
and how would we spend gold? Andrew: not sure the reference to "currency bubble"....."Gold is money.".....if the country loses its taste for paper, you'll be able to exchange
your gold for goods, or for currency at the current rate for gold.....gold might not be worth $1000 then, but $100,000.....thinks 'currency bubble' term means when gov't creates too
much money chasing same amount of goods.....Caller 3: What do you think will be the first domino to fall triggering the big inflation? Andrew: as long as foreigners are buying
our debt, we won't have the big inflation..... prediction: Treasury auctions going badly (no buyers) or the selling of dollar reserves by foreign central banks would be the trigger events.....even
a small country like Thailand or the Phillipines could trigger spiraling inflation.....(John adds:) or a change in sentiment.....Chinese are still buying US debt, but have also increased their gold reserves by 76% in
recent years.....they're hedging their bets.....prediction: "the beginning of the end of the US dollar...we're already past that point...we're watching it right now...the show is
on".....
Caller 4: What about prospects for trade barriers, protectionism, unions? Answer: we're already getting it, like the GMAC gov't takeover.....prediction: especially as
gov't mandates production, they'll have to require that people buy the stuff, because nobody - the market - isn't going to want it.....UAW has managed to get salaries to not be reduced,
so GM cars won't be competitively priced.....Obama is too pro labor.....best alternative if worried about protectionism if to invest in businesses that don't import/export much.....
May 30, 2009 Speech by Peter Schiff at Libertarian Party of Connecticut meeting - video here - approx 00:15 to 2:00; not a radio show, but I'm posting this as Schiff gives an excellent speech and it's great overall primer on his views - video recommended.
Notes are very condensed as I left out much of the nearly two hour speech.
.....prediction: we're not in a recession but the beginning of a Depression.....there are no more bubbles to blow....."it's too enormous at this point".....the 1930 economy was in better shape going into the Great Depression and the government was "tiny" so the New Deal's damage was recoverable.....it's very different now.....we've lived beyond our means for the last 30 years.....phony economy that was possible because the US dollar remained as the world's reserve currency despite its removal from gold backing in 1971.....so America discovered we could "write checks that nobody [foreign lenders] would cash".....
.....we've overinvested in services: heath care, education, consumer shopping, financial services.....we need to invest in infrastructure and manufacturing.....General Motors going forward will be a sham as it's the same incompetent company going forward.....should have gone bankrupt.....wages need to fall and be competitive and non-union labor hired.....
.....we don't have the capital or savings in America.....media and economists always saying we need more consumer spending......not! consumption should be the reward for production......Alan Greenspan was the bartender that liquored up the country with too easy money.....
.....28:30.....economists say to fix the recession we need to stimulate demand....."why do we have to stimulate demand, everybody wants stuff?".....talks about how he'd like to have a helicopter, yacht, etc. but hasn't produced enough to be able to afford them -- his point being there is always ample demand.....this is a serious misunderstanding of the concept of "demand" in economics....."demand" refers to the quantity of a product at some given price that buyers are ready and willing to buy, with money in hand.....what he is talking about is desire, not demand.....everybody would desire a BMW if they were free, but there is a curve that depicts how actual demand for BMW's varies -- i.e. it falls as the price rises
.....compared current Fed quantitative easing to Weimar Republic (Germany) and Zimbabwe.....
.....during the 2008 financial crisis, the world ran to dollars in panic but as they have come to their senses they're now running away from dollars.....commodities now rising, dollar plunging, bonds plunging..... prediction: "this is just the beginning and these trends are going to gather momentum in the weeks and months ahead".....
.....Barack Obama says "credit is the lifeblood of the economy"....Schiff says "it's not, it's the cancer" --(stimulating the consumer)....."Bernie Madoff is a piker compared to what the Federal government is doing.....but it's not just things like Social Security.....Hillary Clinton telling China we've never defaulted.....$3 trillion in T-bills mature in the next year.....if the debtholders don't roll them over and instead take the cash, we have to print money, which is the same as defaulting.....
.....the government taxes strong companies to subsidize the weak.....reiterates this recession will morph into a depression, but not with deflation as in the Great Depression [inflation instead].....government promotes the false idea that deflation is bad, "a pestilence" -- they claim that with falling prices "nobody will buy anything".....nonsense, falling prices are good.....economists' notion that deflation is a "pestilence" to be avoided is not because of the falling prices for consumers; it is because of the opposite side of the transaction -- falling selling prices and revenues for businesses....businesses are double whammied by lower unit sales from the recession's contraction as well as lower selling prices too, all while certain major fixed overhead costs such as interest are unchanged.....this can create a negative feedback loop of falling sales leading to layoffs, leading to falling sales due to more unemployed, etc......
.....prediction: "on our present course, if we continue to do what we are doing, we will have hyperinflation -- there is no way around it"
.....long section of speech where he tried to persuade Libertarians in attendance that they need their candidates to run as Republicans so they have a real shot at winning.....no Libertarians have come close to winning a seat in Congress in 40 years, and "we don't have another 40 years to try"......
.....the government will "grab power" and be increasingly intrusive as the economy worsens.....prediction: the gov't will implement various price controls in the next 4 years -- food and energy included.....we'll have shortages, blackouts and long lines for gas and food.....
.....the reason college tuition is so high is because of government student loans.....too easy money so the colleges jack up tuitions.....
May 27, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....show call in # - toll free 888-678-9597 (unscreened).....short wave radio broadcast is 5.07 mHz.....
.....Schiff got bumped from Glenn Beck show a few days ago because news that Obama made supreme court nomination, but will be on Glenn Beck show instead
tomorrow.....Peter's first appearance with Glenn Beck since he moved to Fox.....Schiff recently shared the stage with David Einhorn at a charity event who talked about
S&P and Moody's and is shorting Moody's stock.....
.....believes government will never downgrade gov't debt because of "incestuous" mutual relationship.....
(on recession)prediction: "we can't get out of this without a major, major
downturn".....
.....bond market: been getting clobbered every day.....yield on 10 year Treasury climbed from 3.5 to 3.7% in one day......since Fed announced it was going to "print
money and buy bonds" the 10 year yield has risen from 2%.....if it reaches 4%, that's a double of interest rates....2009 possibly already the "worst year in
history" for US treasuries.....
.....mortgage rates not rising as fast as Treasuries since gov't and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac irresponsibly artificially holding rates down.....
(long discussion on how you can't time stock purchases using a Chinese stock example)
.....on nominating Supreme Court justices.....should simply "enforce" the Constitution.....here you have Sotomayor "bragging" that she will let her background
influence her judgments.....Time magazine article about Peter coming out in next issue.....sparked unfair criticism of Schiff by Don Luskin.....
Caller 1: Why did the rest of the world put up with Nixon closing the gold window on the world in 1971? Also, what does "removing excess liquidity" by the Fed mean?
Answer: the Fed cannot remove liquidity any easier than a drug addict can stop using.....raising interest rates would pull the rug out from under everything they're
trying to prop up.....on first question, "I don't know why the world was dumb enough to continue to hold the dollar as the reserve currency despite the fact that we
severed it's link to gold.".....it's the root cause of the big economic imbalances now.....we were able to write blank checks that nobody ever cashed.....Caller 2: What
about the (VAT) Value Added Tax? Answer: I don't want to tax working, saving and investing.....I want to tax consumption instead.....it's also very simple to impose
sales tax at time of purchase; no complex forms and accountants.....self-corrective because if the tax is oppressive, people can avoid buying stuff and thus keep tax
rates in check.....VAT hides the tax rate from the consumer; it's added at the various levels of production.....Question: Is now a good time to buy a house? Answer:
No, things will get worse and housing will go lower. You might make money as a debtor though. If you can do it with a low down payment and get the $8000 FHA tax
credit, you could end up owning the house for free.....with a 20 or 30 percent down payment, I think you are better off sticking that down payment into foreign stocks.....
(talked at length about clients accounts performance short term and how the market couldn't be timed).....Caller 3: He is 50% in gold. Remembers gold at $250/oz and
worried about buying or holding now at $950. Answer: Schiff is very confident and personally heavily invested in gold, but encourages diversification, esp. if you need
investment income. Caller 4: Young guy with $50k to invest. What do you recommend? Answer: Call Europac. Own gold stocks, Asian stocks (China explosive
growth potential).....prediction: once gold moves above $1000 I wouldn't be surprised if it starts climbing $50-100 per day.....it will be too hard to buy then, so buy now at
$950.....Caller 5: Why are you down on mutual funds ... would you consider establishing your own? Answer: Europac is planning to start a Chinese stock mutual fund.
Generally discourages buying mutual funds since you have to trust the managers competence and integrity.....
May 20, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....markets: dollar continuing to decline.....down 10% from peak of dollar rally.....thinks dollar index at 80 or 77 might get temporary support.....prediction: dollar index "to be
trading at new all-time record lows by late 2009".....other currencies all advancing.....gold, silver, oil are all up.....expect oil up to $70-$80 bbl by middle of summer.....maybe
$100 bbl by end of year, esp. if dollar index below 70.....gold north of $1000 when that happens.....HUI gold stock index is up 150% since October.....(long discourse on how
gold stock decline of 2008 was a buying opportunity).....
....."I think the dollar index could be at 40 within a year or two."....."the global economy is not in is bad shape as
people thought"....."but the US economy is even worse"....."I still think that US stocks will drop, even in nominal terms"....."ultimately inflation will put a floor beneath the stock
market so I don't think the DOW (DJIA) is going all the way down to 1000, for example, there's going to be way too much inflation....but it's going to feel like 1000.....thinks
DJIA will equal 1 ounce of gold, which right now is $925, but when DJIA equals 1 ounce of gold he expects gold to be $4000-$5000 an ounce, or more.....if that's the case,
these gold stocks that have tripled in the last few months could be up a hundred fold.....(long discourse of anecdotes and analogies).....news broke that Obama wants to run
GM.....what a disaster, "has any state owned company ever [succeeded]".....prediction:
gov't can't make cars - nobody will buy them, 5 yr waiting list to buy from slow production, repairs also will take forever.....compared to East German state built car (couldn't
remember the name).....
.....prediction: "anyone that stays in US dollars is just going to get crushed - obliterated through inflation, there's no other way out of this".....Caller 1: Japanese has high debt
to GDP ratio, why didn't the yen suffer like you expect for the dollar? Answer: The Japanese gov't interfered, stimulated, and went into debt like us, but the difference is that
the Japanese economy underneath is sound and productive and their government borrowed from their own citizens who had a high savings rate. The US is borrowing a lot
more, and from foreigners. Also, the US GDP numbers are just fluff since we have a 70% consumer economy. US debt is enormous compared to Japan's in relation to the
manufacturing base. Question: How do you pick currencies to get into? Answer: I don't but just diversify amongst foreign currencies. We don't seek to own currencies
(cash or bonds), but want to own stuff. So we avoid cash of any kind (bonds) and seek to own assets, like stocks.....thinks inflation will be global so stay away from
bonds everywhere.....
"gold is money,".... not commodities as commodities don't lend themselves to monetary transactions....."the current monetary system is a
complete disaster.....it can't work because there is no money.....we have a monetary system with no money.....money is gold.....paper is a money substitute.....currencies
need to be backed by money.....if they're just fiat, it doesn't work.....and that's why we have all these global imbalances and that's why the US economy was able to devolve
into this abomination that we call the service sector economy that's collapsing all around us".....China and Brazil trading with each other without the use of dollars
anymore - Brazilian real or RMB settlement.....US gov't thinks they can print unlimited money.....Obama and Geithner "are going to fly this plane right into the side of a
cliff".....if you're on that plane, you're going up in flames...."it ain't landing -- I'm sure it's not landing".....Caller 2: If US stock market is just in a bear market rally, couldn't
foreign markets fall with the US too? Answer: Sure, foreign markets can drop. prediction: in the long run I'm confident these stocks will be a lot higher than today....'long run'
not "a decade" but "six months, a year, or two".....just get out of dollars and paper and own good stocks with dividends....."I know if you stay in dollars I'm convinced you're
gonna be broke".....question: What are the prospects for Canadian energy since they supply the US and since the US consumption of energy will fall? Answer: the US will
use less energy but booming China, India, etc. will more than make up for it.....their currencies will rise too, so they will be able to buy energy while poor Americans with
dollars will get priced out of buying energy (decoupling).....Caller 3: Needs glossary of investment terms or explanations. Answer: There is a glossary in 'Crash Proof' and
internet sites have explanations. Caller 4: .....appreciates Peter Schiff video blogs and expanded Schiff presence on facebook.....Question: As Army guy he has a lot of
money in the US government 'Thrift Savings Program' (TSP) (tax sheltered retirement funds), what should he do? Answer: call one of my advisors at Euro Pac to discuss your
situation.....do what you can to own foreign investments as much as you can..... I personally have funds in TSP as well.....the "I" fund is
international stocks.....you can transfer shares from other funds to the "I" fund on the TSP website at any time. Caller 5: Inflaton, deflation, the reset of the option ARMs and the commercial real estate bubble burst are all coming together in a mixed stew -- how much inflation will the
Fed create to compensate for the deflation? Answer: They're not compensating for deflation.....they're creating inflation and you'll feel it.....it's not deflation, it's a bubble
bursting.....you can see inflation already in the rising commodities.....
.....we had an artificial phony boom with cheap credit, bailouts, moral hazard, etc., "[the gov't turned]
a nation of prudent savers and producers into a nation of wild speculators and spendthrifts.....what was it that destroyed the American spirit that took an otherwise frugal,
productive, hard working society and turned them into what we just experienced.....it was the government.....the gov't got the whole nation drunk.....now they want to liquor us
back up again".....
Question: what about police, as I work for a police department? Answer: the departments won't have the money for pay, so there will be fewer
police and more crime.....that's why a lot of people are stocking up on guns and ammo.....I think things will get a lot more dangerous.....we'll have to rely on our own
protection.....more hunger, more unemployment, more crime..... Caller 6: Will Canadian trust shares listed in US markets (ADRs) be able to keep up with the falling dollar?
Answer: Yes, you own the Canadian shares in Canada -- you don't have to worry about the exchange rate as it always keeps up.....Euro Pac buys foreign shares on the foreign
exchanges for greater liquidity and to avoid wide spreads.....
May 13, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....finally a bit of a pullback in stocks with the DOW down.....a lot of bears have turned bullish and bulls are more bullish.....so "it's obviously vulnerable to a big selloff".....look at the
strength we've had in the financials.....prediction: "I can't imagine a worse sector of the market for future profits or dividends.....it makes no sense".....looks like a lot of short covering
or just speculative money......overseas markets continue to outperform.....up 5 to 10% in a day quite often.....I think we're seeing decoupling.....gold stocks (HUI Index) (AMEX 'Gold
Bugs').....about half of my own portfolio is gold stocks.....HUI dropped about 70% between August and October 2008.....this morning up about 130% since October.....hasn't regained
the peak yet, but I've recommended gold stocks for ten years, very profitably.....(long discussion of HUI chart and buying opportunity of the last year).....I was confident when my
portfolio was way down that it was a buying opportunity and I didn't worry about misguided deflation worries.....
.....his strategy unchanged: "move money out of cash, move out of dollars, and keep buying stuff"....don't worry about a correction....he'd be very surprised if in a correction foreign
stocks make new lows.....
.....news: headline "Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline"....."how could they not decline?....the country is broke.....people have to stop spending - that's reality".....Schiff was reading
that landlords with vacated stores are leasing the front windows as billboards.....that's all they can get for tenants.....prediction: "obviously America doesn't need all the retail space
that we had because our days of shopping are over".....before Americans had bubble priced houses and inflated stock portfolios so they were spending and not saving any
money.....retirement was simply watching their assets appreciate....."now, very few Americans have any home equity, the stocks have collapsed, a lot of Americans don't have jobs
-- how can we spend?".....everybody was drugged with the illusion of phony paper wealth.....lenders have had bad debts so don't want to lend, and borrowers don't want to borrow now
because people now realize they really have to save for retirement.....[consumption, demand, GDP] prediction: "retail sales will keep falling -- they're going to fall for years -- they're
going a lot lower -- this is part of the solution.".....
.....Alan Greenspan just gave a speech saying his interest rate policy had nothing to do with the housing bubble, mortgage rates, and subprime -- "says he was totally
innocent".....unbelievable.....he said that mortgage rates are not from the Fed funds rate, but determined by the long term government bond rates which the Fed doesn't
control.....Schiff says he supposes that's true for fixed mortgages, but not adjustable......remember the problem in subprime mortgages was the ARM's -- adjustable teaser rates.....
criticized Greenspan's small quarter percent tightening at each Fed meeting.....Greenspan was the Ace of Spades in the deck of cards of villains in the housing bubble.....
Caller 1: Error in "Crash Proof" about the date of 1968 for junk silver -- should be 1965. Answer: yes, he told Wiley to fix a long list of errors but they didn't. Crash Proof is in its
18th printing.....over 150,000 copies sold though Wiley never spent one dime advertising it.....not bad for the first book I wrote.....Caller 2: What about palladium, and what are the
rules for moving bullion in or out of the US? Answer: Schiff is bullish on palladium. I believe no rules prohibit moving bullion across the border. If you have more than $10,000
worth, you have to disclose it to authorities. If you step on a plane with a briefcase of gold, you have to disclose it.....
.....when you own gold stocks, you own gold in the ground unmined ..... likes the stocks because of leverage.....if the price of gold doubles, he would expect gold stocks to at least
increase 3 to 5 fold because of leveraged profits.....they will also go down more than the price of gold.....Question: Will the IMF sell its gold? Answer: I hope so because I don't like
the IMF and would like to see them go broke.....if they sell all their gold they won't have any influence.....prediction: China has doubled its gold reserves from 2% to 4% and I'm sure they'll buy
more.....IMF selling I don't think would depress the price.....Question: Is CFA a tainted designation since they missed all the toxic assets or were complicit? Answer: No, it's not
their fault. Certified Financial Analysts learn to read balance sheets and income statements and read financial filings. A lot of people misunderstood things and made honest
mistakes.....
.....I have a new facebook site I took over from a fan.....not sure what I'll do with it, but you can join me on facebook.....there are many sites about me on facebook and
myspace that were put up by my fans; I never set myself up on facebook or myspace until I took over this one facebook page now from a fan now.....I think I'm on twitter, but I've never tweeted on twitter yet.....Caller 3: Canadian in a ski resort based
area wants to know who the rich tourists will be in "the new economy". Also, what about future exchange rates? Answer: "it's obvious to me that Americans will travel much
less.....more Canadians should be travelling to America for cheap shopping with their much stronger CAN$.....expect more tourists in Canada from Asia and Europe.....Caller 4:
What about having long term contracts have clauses protecting from inflation risk with some gold stipulation? Answer: I think Roosevelt abrogated gold clauses in contracts.....as
far as today there's nothing preventing parties stipulating payment in gold.....for example, an apartment's rent could be one ounce of gold per month (you could settle in dollars at
spot).....Caller 5:
.....lives in Panama; there are rumors that Ecuador might move its currency off the US dollar. Answer: it used to be the US dollar had strength so small countries linked their
currencies for stability.....now that's opposite so he expects more countries to want to depeg....they should try to do it before China does or their currencies will lose a
lot.....Question: I can't find 'crash proof' in Panama. Answer: it was translated in many languages.....150,000 copies sold just in the US in English, no idea how many copies
elsewhere but it's all over the globe.....Caller 6: His friends with businesses say the banks are not lending to them. Answer: Good for the banks; they shouldn't be lending to
Americans when they're broke. Americans are loaded up with debt and are bad credit risks.....businesses aren't competitive now because of high taxes and high regulations.....
prediction: "what we are creating right now I think is going to be worse than the Great Depression - it's going to be an inflationary depression and at some point somebody will have to
stand up and stop the insanity"....."the Republicans are just as complicit in this as the Democrats".....
May 6, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....everybody is getting bullish -- just because the market is going up.....bank 'stress tests' are bogus.....jobs numbers are applauded just because fewer jobs lost than
expected.....foolish reason for bullishness.....expects US market to go higher nominally, but not priced in gold.....this is an American, not global, depression (decoupling
sooner rather than later).....foreigners will actually benefit from decoupling from the US.....economic data in China much, much better than the US.....
.....stock gains in foreign markets have far outpaced US market this year since the bottom......from Canadian Energy Trusts to the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong market), the US
market's rise pales.....prediction: expects a flight from currencies, especially the dollar.....US stocks might continue to go up, but not as fast as the dollar comes down.....US
stocks are not rising now because of stock bullishness, but because people are running from holding US dollars.....expects the dollar to fall if the US market rises any
further.....far more risk now in cash than in stocks.....Caller 1: What about those who say the gold standard worsened the Great Depression? Answer: gold did not aggravate the
Depression.....politicians just blame it on gold....they want no gold standard so they can spend without restriction.....Caller 2: Canadian who owns silver asks what effect a
rising Canadian dollar would have on his silver holdings Answer: silver will outpace a rise in the Canadian dollar so you will profit.....Caller 3: Should I pay off 7.9% APR credit card
debt or invest my spare cash? Answer: he's not a fan of credit card debt -- if you have investable cash, why not pay it off?.....especially if the interest rate can go up, pay
off the debt before you invest.....Caller 4: Worried about investing in communist China and also concerned about banks demolishing almost-completed new homes.....Answer: he
saw a piece on wrecking almost-done homes, which is shameful.....China's communism is not a worry since their economy is not communist, but mostly capitalist.....
.....we can't
trust anybody in our own government.....the real terrorists are in Congress, the White House and the Fed.....they're taking our freedoms and destroying the economy.....Caller
5: Will the currency crisis present buying opportunities? Answer: you should be out of currencies before the currency crisis, not after it arrives when purchasing power has already suffered.....natural resource stocks
and commodities are a good place to be in high inflation.....prediction:....."I think they are finished blowing bubbles"....there won't be another bubble the Fed will blow up going
forward..... the inflation they create will not be in bubbles in stocks and real estate specifically but will show up in commodity and consumer prices in general.....ultimately
stocks and real estate will rise nominally but will not be leading inflation in the form of a bubble.....
April 29, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
....the New Zealand central bank just cut its discount rate to 2.5%.....it's irresponsible, what the central banks are doing following in the footsteps of the Federal
Reserve.....rates are much too low.....the US is leading the world into such an inflationary nightmare that we'll be hated for many years around the world.....prediction: "we are going to
basically destroy the monetary system of the world with this interest rate policy".....people's retirement savings will get wiped out.....US low inflation statistics are just a lie and maybe other countries will
follow that lead and lie when real inflation starts picking up.....
.....GDP 1st quarter contracted by over 6% -- worse than expected.....consumer spending increased about 2% which was celebrated -- foolishly, spending is not what we
want.....thinks spending and inventory contractions were because of bargain and liquidation prices.....once inventory is drawn down there won't be excess inventories any
more, so no more need for fire sale prices.....demand will contract (GDP) as prices normalize and begin rising.....
.....bank stress tests used worse case scenario of -3% annual GDP.....we're at -6% annualized in the 1st quarter so their built in, dangerous assumption is that GDP rebounds
later this year!.....
.....(long discussion on how nationalization of the automobile companies will lead to disaster and no market-viable cars from US automakers)....."this government...never
misses an opportunity to do the worst thing -- if you were trying to plan the destruction of our economy, you couldn't plan it any better [than this].....(long discussion on giving
President Obama an "F" -- that he is leading us over a cliff -- into bigger and ineffective government)..........thinks Paul Volcker is likely to resign "sometime soon" rather than
stay in this administration and lose his reputation.....
....this week: disguised second mortgage assistance is really a bailout program for banks -- government assistance in modifying second mortgages (home equity
loans).....said to stem foreclosures, but 2nd tier mortgage holders are very unlikely to receive anything at all in foreclosure, so this is bogus -- they won't foreclose.....first
mortgage holder has to get paid in full before 2nd gets a penny.....home equity loans (2nds) also were not securitized so borrowers know their (local) lenders.....
.....blamed government for industries that have spiraling cost increases such as education and health care.....said that industries that are competitive (reasonable prices) are
that way because the government does not meddle in them.....
.....Ben Bernanke got a 1590 on the SAT and Schiff only scored 1150.....how do these smart officials do such dumb things?.....
.....businesses can't force consumers to purchase, they have to entice them with good stuff at competitive prices, while gov't. mandates things on threat of fines and
imprisonment.....gov't. doesn't have to have a good service at a good price, so they screw it up.....thus greedy businesspeople are not a worry while greedy government
is.....
.....if the founding fathers had started us out with big government, we never would have prospered.....prediction: I know the economic crisis and currency crisis are
coming; the sooner the better as the longer the delay, the bigger the crash to come.....Caller 1: Agrees that more exports are key, but how does an American manufacturer
compete when their competition is all using cheap overseas labor? Answer: unfortunately we are not competitive any more. We need to have lower taxes, less regulations
and we'll have to live with lower wages. The Chinese have better high tech facilities so we can't compete with them until we rebuild with capital. We'll need higher interest
rates now to attract abundant savings, which will lead to low interest rates. Caller 2: Won't the government spending drive GDP up? Answer: The government spending is
inflationary so in real terms it doesn't change. Government spending is not the real economy. prediction: The real economy will get worse and worse.....
.....(long discussion on Fed takeover of General Motors (GM) being a bad idea.....compared to the Post Office.....private businesses in trouble try to cut costs and prices -- the
gov't is the opposite, they just raise prices....."every time the post office is operating at a loss, they raise the price of stamps or cut services".....they never try to dramatically
reduce the number of employees, automate things, or modernize.....actually, the post office has done a lot of cost cutting in the form of layoffs and route consolidating (since mail
volume has dropped a lot due to rising use of email) .....it's also illegal to compete with the PO in mail delivery.....Caller 3: Are foreign silver
coins as good as US coins if we end up using them for commerce? Answer: US coins would be easily recognizable by everybody, so they will be more readily accepted.....
April 22, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....finally a pullback in stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) below 7900, down around 300-400 points off the recent high.....the bears have turned to
bulls.....few think the market is going lower "which probably means it is going lower".....this is just a bear market rally.....banks better than expected earnings lately are just
accounting gimmicks.....banks are in deep trouble really.....one time trading revenues too big a factor in positive surprises while base earnings are poor.....AIG deliberately
sold securities at losses so they would be eligible for greater bailouts and pay themselves bigger bonuses.....Wells Fargo (WFC) better-than-expected earnings came entirely
from reversing mark-to-market losses.....this is just a fantasy.....some banks say they want to return TARP money, but it's just for show and so they can again pay
themselves bonuses prohibited under TARP.....the banks are still in trouble but want to just appear strong, and TARP money program limits exec bonuses so they want
out.....bank stress tests "are going to be rigged".....unrealistic worst-case scenarios will be used.....
.....Obama's projections of deficits through his term are way too rosy.....they assume 'vibrant economic growth' which is (prediction): "obviously not going to
happen".....deficit projections unrealistic because not only is gov't spending accelerating but gov't tax receipts are plummeting..... gov't now trying to interfere with the free
market in the credit card industry by mandating lower interest rates for some borrowers.....this will actually blow up in the government's face since credit card companies will
simpy not lend, then, if they can't price the risk properly.....Obama keeps talking about people needing to save more and have less debt, but then he turns around and
encourages consumer spending and borrowing.....very hypocritical.....the stimulus programs don't match the rhetoric.....(long discussion that the current administration must
be thinking that they want Americans to stop borrowing on their credit cards, but just not now -- later...for now they want to reflate the bubble and keep the party going).....Schiff never differentiates between the Americans who have a lot of debt and no net worth, and the many other Americans who have little debt and
substantial net worth. He consistently talks as though all Americans are overly indebted.....consumer spending since 2007 has sharply contracted from those who
can't spend as much (e.g. the recently unemployed), as well as those with plenty of money who have simply curbed their spending out of fear.....it's not a problem
for the gov't to encourage spending by this latter group, who can easily afford it and even pay cash -- businesses desperately need the business in this downturn.....as far as
those who do have a lot of debt -- since the financial crisis of 2008, lenders have become much more careful about credit worthiness.....also, the 'securitization' racket has ground to a halt
.....so going forward, for the most part, consumers will have a much harder time getting any loans beyond what they can afford......for several years before 2008, credit was
extremely easy to get, but now it's a whole different story (with some exceptions for certain government sponsored programs).....
.....Caller 1: ...he saw that delinquent taxpayer stats are up 280%, even after all the stimulus! Answer: think about where we'd be now without the artificial temporary lift
of the stimulus.....prediction: "the long term pain is not 10 or 20 years from now; it's soon, maybe 6 months"....."none of this stuff is going to work, it is impossible for it to
work, the only thing that can work is to let the market function and sort it out"....
.....Schiff speaking at the annual CFA conference next week in Florida.....
.....(long discussion of how people are scamming and lying to get government mortgage
assistance, including his mother's landlord who is a fire chief).....
Caller 2: what about Bernanke saying the Fed can mop up excess liquidity? Answer:....of course it cant,
it's all just talk.....
April 15, 2009 Host: Peter Schiff
.....today is tax day.....protests happening today known as "Tea Parties".....it's not the taxes, but the government spending that's the problem.....
.....his videoblog now upgraded with better audio/video quality.....his appearances on ABC evening news and Good Morning America were bumped this week by the story of the Obamas
new puppy.....Schiff will appear on CNN with Steven Leeb in the next week and will be speaking in New York at "End the Fed" rally April 25th.....
.....Obama claims that all economists on "both sides" agree that the gov't can't cut spending now.....nonsense -- this is what caused the Great Depression.....government debt is all
Americans' debt, so it undermines the belt tightening being done at the family level (long discussion).....Obama believes in central planning -- government guiding the economy.....bad
idea.....
.....on education: "the reason our kids are not being educated is because they are in government schools, and the reason it costs so much money to get such a lousy education is
because of the credit being funneled by the government into the educational bureacracy so our universities can charge a fortune for their lousy degrees".....
....."the government's not going to fix health care -- the government broke health care".....when has the government ever brought the cost of anything down?.....it drives costs up in
health insurance, the VA, Medicaid.....
.....prediction: "there is no recovery".....this is 1931 or 1932.....the Depression is ahead of us, not behind us.....it will be "much worse" than the 1930's as it will be an inflationary
depression [instead of deflationary].....Caller 1: When will you do Kudlow again, and why aren't you on the Kudlow caucus? What will it take to abolish the central banks and fractional
reserve banking and return to the gold standard? Answer: prediction: no question in my mind that it will happen.....what we have now is not money.....money has to have intrinsic
value.....fiat money distorts values.....we'll return to a gold standard when the people demand it in their transactions.....Caller 2: How will commodities be priced against a new gold-backed currency?
Answer: the gov't cannot arbitrarily set prices of commodities because if the price is not realistic nobody will trade.....the free markets will determine prices by supply and
demand, not price controls by the government.....Caller 3: high school student has got his dad convinced the dollar will crash but dad won't invest in stocks because of past bad experiences
with commissions and fees....how can he convince his dad that brokerages charge fair fees? Answer: at Euro Pacific Capital, after the initial trades the brokers don't encourage trading the
accounts and the fees basically stop.....they have such a growing business they don't need to churn accounts or sell high-fee investment vehicles.....he won't let his brokers do that.....
.....Connecticut just passed a new 8% income tax, up from 5%, up from 0% before the 1990's.....makes moving to Florida attractive.....Caller 4: Why did gold actually fall from 1981
to 2000, with an aggregate 30% inflation (money creation), ballooning trade deficit, and national debt growth? Answer: the cycle was that gold boomed from 1970 to 1980; nobody
wanted gold 1980-2000 because you could make money in stocks and bonds.....that's not the case now.....Caller 5: What percentage has or will the money supply be increased?
Answer: 'the stimulus is being paid for 100% by printing money.....i don't know how much the money supply has increased, it's multiple trillions.....its hundreds of percent..... the chart
for the money supply is going straight up, vertical'.....caller re-question: if the money supply doubled, you would guesstimate a halving of the money's value and doubling of prices -- how
much is it increasing? Answer: "it's hard to know exactly what the money supply was and exactly how much it's going to go [up], but [prediction:]I think they'll debase the dollar by 70, 80, 90%
at least which means prices will triple, quadruple, quintuple over I think a relatively short..."(audio cut out).....it's not hard to see how the money supply has
changed up to the present -- Here is the Federal Reserve's report. [ M2 is broader, thus better, than M1 as it includes savings
accounts, money market accounts, and CD's below $100,000, as well as currency and checking accounts. The April '09 money supply (M2) reportedly is $8.376 trillion versus $7.727 trillion a
year earlier -- an 8.4% increase. I recall that a few months ago it briefly peaked at an annualized pace of somewhat under 20% ]
.....Caller 6: Has some cash (less than the Euro Pacific minimum $15k) to invest, what should he do? Answer: suggests investing $10k in physical gold through the Perth mint or just
stocking up on stuff....hoard food and goods now while they're still cheap.....we could get price controls during this administration, and shortages.....Caller 7: "End the Fed" to promote
HR 1207 is on the 25th; starts at the Federal Reserve building in New York and then they march to City Hall Park for Peter's speech.....where should he move as a mobile young
man?....knows Jim Rogers moved his family to Singapore. Answer: many places around the world will be better places to live than the United States.....our ancestors came here for the
freedom.....when the freedom is burdened by big government and taxes, young people will leave.....
April 8, 2009
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